Why There is No Populist Alternative on the Left
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Before the 2008 election, I stressed the need for a progressive party. The Democrats were not addressing our concerns and Obama, as most progressives acknowledged at the time, was not and never had been a progressive. I was told the important thing was to elect Obama and put an end to the bad days of the Bush era. Well, we can all see how well that turned out.
There has been a lot of talk about how the left has been veal penned. But I don't think it is understood how much of its organizations have been. The healthcare debate is a great example for this. You had large swathes of the traditionally liberal Democratic blogosphere like dkos and Huffington Post that were essentially in the bag for whatever the Democrats/Obama came up with. This also included HCAN, a veal pen creation put together by other veal pen groups, including unions.
But beyond these, there were co-opted veal penned progressive groupings. These were the public option supporters, like firedoglake. The PO was never more than a contentless, read into it whatever you want, hook to keep the rubes quiet while the real sellout was going on.
These were the positions of most of the liberal/progressive organizations and groups going in. Noticeably absent from all these was the only truly progressive program of single payer universal healthcare. This already exists in various forms in most of the industrialized world and delivers better outcomes at substantially lower prices. What is so interesting about this is that not only did Obama and the Democrats never put this on or anywhere near the table, neither did almost the whole of the organized left. Single payer proponents were ostracized, banned, and viciously attacked, not just by Obama and the Democrats, which was to be expected, but by this much larger veal pen of liberal Democrats and independent progressives.
When it was all over, the public option was exposed as the PR sham it was, and had always been. Some progressive groups belatedly opposed the healthcare bill, but most did not. By then it didn't matter anyway. It was a done deal. Yet to this day, most of the rancor of these groups remains directed at the single payer supporters, the only people in that whole sorry mess who got it right on both the policy and the politics that were going on.
So what does this have to do with a new progressive party or populist movement on the left? Well, everything. All the liberal and progressive groups that could have done so much to create a real debate on healthcare yet did so much instead to suppress that debate are playing the same role here. dkos and Huffington Post could be powerful tools for organizing a populist progressive alternative to the two parties and the Tea party. But this would be to overlook that they operate as virtual adjuncts of the Democratic party. So their hostility to anything independent or third party is expectable.
What is less expected, and actually quite pernicious, is how so many progressive blogs take a similar if not so obvious position. There the attitude, as I have often heard, is go out organize a third party, get it up and running, on the ballot, and start winning elections, and then, and only then, will we maybe come along.
You have to understand these are the same groups that in 2006 and 2008 pushed hard the theme of "more and better Democrats" and eagerly sought out potential forward looking Democrats and organized for them. Many of those Democrats lost, done in by the Establishment Democratic machine, but even those that won without exception sold out their progressive supporters and turned their back on them at the earliest opportunity. Yet these groups, despite being burned and burned again, continue to concentrate on and favor Democrats. When it comes to backing actual progressives, people who won't burn them or scuttle the progressive agenda, they vary between indifferent and hostile.
So if you want to know why there is no populist alternative on the left, the answer is that huge chunks of the left continue to be controlled by the Democratic party, fairly overtly. Independent progressives are similarly dominated by Trojan Horse groups, progressive in name but Democratic in orientation, which suck all the air out of progressive organizing efforts. The result is that progressives are largely shut out, even on the left, even in those organizations that should be most supportive of their ideas, even among those that say they support those ideas.
There are a few progressives who have rebelled and are trying to build new organizations. But it is hard. Look at it this way. There is a periphery between traditional Democrats and liberal Democrats. There is another between liberal Democrats and progressives, and there is yet another between veal pen progressives and true independent progressives. Progressives have a good message and good solutions, but it is difficult to get it to an audience in a recognizable form past all those veal pens.
(This post began as a comment at Naked Capitalism where, as Yves would say, mirabile dictu, it would not load. I thought to attach it to lambert's orginal post which brought this to my attention, and then thought it could stand alone as a post of its own.)

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Comments
One might go so far as to say that is the Ds function
At least based on outcomes from 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, and 2010.
The hippie punching is simply another manifestation of the increasing nakedness and coarseness of Versailles culture; they don't even bother to pretend any more. The reality has been the same since the Washington Consensus took hold in the mid-1970s, but there used to be a pretence. I take this as a sign of fragility, rather than the reverse, in the same way that people who feel the need to censor or shout are generally losers on the issues.
Liberal leaning progressives need
to divorce themselves from the Democratic Party. They also have to stop elevating wealthy people who say things they like. The hero worship of the Arianna Huffingtons and the Warren Buffet and the Mark Zuckerbergs has to stop. These people may agree with liberals on some issues, but I think it is very dangerous to try and make them heros of the middle class. Look at Arianna Huffington, apparently the new voice of the middle class. She is embracing the most neoliberal domestic policy to come out of this administration, the vaunted Race to the Top, all while bemoaning neoliberalism, and using her site to promote the entire merit pay/anti-union/pro-privatizing education policy. If you took a look at her site you would think that WAS the progressive position on education. Warren Buffet pushed for and benefitted from the bank bailouts. Zuckerberg has literally positioned himself to design the Newark education policy, which is completely anti-democratic, while arguing schools need to be run like start-ups(START-UPS!) not "government bureaucracies". I'm not saying wealthy people can't be part of a genuine grassroots progressive movement that put the economic majority first, but I sense a real split in attitudes emerging as we've seen the wealth gap grow and too often I think people are looking to the powerful to be their voice.
Start-ups have a very high failure rate -- oh yeah that'll work.
I'm just laughing -- and it's not really funny, at all.
Exactly...
One really has to wonder about the intelligence of today's average billionaire.
thank you, hugh. so well said. re killing the messengers!
I saw hope in Edwards' discussion and focus on populism but his movement got short shrift among the faux-progressives, establishment and media and his personal life was simultaneously unravelling which was all pretty depressing.
So many I assume assumed that Obama would do the right thing since Obama was an African American man and how could he not empathize with the plight of the under-privileged in this country? Yeah, that come-uppance slogan about "ass-uming". Sigh. Assumptions made about Hillary being female, too, helping women as an underclass.
In 12 step recovery they say that you can't recover until you do step 1 --surrender to reality. Rigorous honesty as to how out of control things are. Overcoming denial if you want to move beyond step 1. Not partial denial. Full surrender. Dem party hasn't done this. So much demonization of Bushco the Dems wimped by on a pass and never took their own inventory and WHAM Obama gets in there and shows us how corrupt the eclipsed second war/money party is.
The other thing as I was reading your blog was the power of "cronyism". We are such a sports-oriented country. Power and competition such important values in our hopped-up-masculinized anti-feeling culture, that partnership and cooperation are not valued. Go team. Military teams. Political teams. Issue teams. Website teams. Go radio program team host. Etc. Cronyism.
Cronyism pays. Rove knew that when he got the strict Catholics to bail on the Dem party over abortion for example. Many hated Bush, but that wedge issue ... how could they not vote against the devil party defending the right to abortion.
AIPAC knows the power of lobbying for cronyism.
Lots of examples of cronyism.
Yes, principle and opinions but how reinforced they are by one's TRIBE. And in our A.D.D. culture who doesn't rely on other people's judgements, people we respect rather than following up on doing our own critical thinking and listening from the horse's mouth.
And legacy Dems endorse other legacy Dems and I used to listen hard to this. Now I realize how played we all are by all of them.
And then you have the severe black-out of truth, reality by the media which is so super insidious, and is our robotic, hypnotic covert crony each and every day. Nuanced and not so nuanced assertions of propagandized commentary. Look at the power of Oprah. Imho she made the diff for Obama.
Astroturf vs. grassroots. Astroturf seems to be winning, doesn't it? The single payer movement was real grassroots and was not small in terms of numbers. Its defeat was so very telling to what bad shape we are in. How strong the enemies of the people are. They divide and conquer and the common good is lost. The public trust not even n the political vocabulary any more.
The contrast seems to boil down to truth vs. illusion
Which I think reveals the answer to the problem: illusion isn't real. Therefore, it is inherently fragile. Lambert has always made the point that the political establishment relies on enormous engines of obfuscation and deception to maintain their control. The Washington Consensus is built on lots of systems with lots of moving parts. It's vulnerable to disruption.
By contrast, truth exists. Truth has substance, to use the old scholastic vocabulary. It can never really be destroyed- just lost, or suppressed, or forgotten. But it always endures, waiting for us to return to it. And it's always inherently simple.
The point is not unique to me
It was central to the media critique of the blogosphere, and also there's Chomsky's "manufacture of consent." The WMD episode before Iraq, where so many of us played whackamole with manufactured evidence from the administration, was really formative. I think what's unique to us isn't the concept, but constant posting of the detail of it, day by day, in a very intimate fashion.
Well, anyone who knows Clinton's record
knows that she has a long and effective resume of advocating for working class women. And based on her history of accomplishment, I would assume that would remain the same. Do not mistake your lack of awareness of what she has done, for her lack of accomplishment. They are two very different things. What I find so disturbing in the left is the unwillingness to recognize genuine liberal accomplishment when it's part of the historical record. Dollars to donuts, you can't tell me one thing she got done as First Lady of Arkansas. I liked Edwards too, but unlike Hillary, he had no history of getting things done for ordinary people - other than winning law suits. That's it. But you go back through the years with Hillary and there she is from the moment she's out of law school, getting things done for ordinary people. She's had one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate and was far closer to Boxer than to Feinstein. I can't understand how so many women are so blind when it comes to her history. It really reads as sucking up to the patriarchy.
Obama won by cheating - it's that simple. First he cheated in the caucuses. In Indiana, he transported under age high school students around to vote at early voting places. Once it got to the Rules and Bylaws Committee, the CEO of a health insurance company simply arranged to dock half the delegates from two of the states that voted for Hillary, and to further, give all the uncommitted delegates to Obama from Michigan as well as four of the delegates Hillary won.
You might want to ask yourself why Wall Street and the health care industry supported Obama so overtly against Clinton if she's what you think she is.
Because We Think For Ourselves...?
...,It's "Sucking Up To The Patriarchy...?"
I don't think so.
Seeing her record as SoS is more than enough to tell me that she's no friend of women, unless my definition of "women" stops at the U.S. borders.
Well, the women's organizations in
Afghanistan would beg to differ with you. In fact, the majority of Afghanis that don't want the US to pull out disagree with you. When we do, there are going to be people slaughtered by the hundreds of thousands. The women's organizations in Afghanistan are terrified and they regard Clinton as one of their strongest allies. Can you find a prominent feminist group IN AFGHANISTAN that opposes her actions as SOS? Just one group? And I don't mean some random westerner. I mean, an actually Afghani group that will stay there, because they are born there and that's where there families live, when we leave.
It's not that you think for yourself. That's certainly not my impression of what you do. It's that you have bought all of the patriarchal rhetoric about Clinton hook, line and sinker and have never questioned it even once. You don't know her history. You don't know her voting record.
It's just so weird how many women cannot acknowledge Clinton's tremendous impact as a feminist. It's like you're terrified to admit that there is somone out there advocating for ordinary people - which she does over and over again. And dollars to donuts, you can't name a single thing she's ever done for average people.
Go ahead - tell us what you know about what she did in Arkansas that improved life for average Arkansans. Bet you can't name one thing.
My Feminism Doesn't...
...bomb women overseas to smithereens along with their families, in the guise of "liberation." Using the arrogant notion that my government gets to decide whether or not people they don't know are better off dead than alive under the Taliban.
It does not impoverish American women in the process, by robbing America's coffers and destroying its future-- along with the families, friends, and neighbors of American women.
For me to give Hillary a pass because she threw some crumbs to a comparable few women here and around the world would be like my giving Kucinich a pass for what he's done in Ohio-- even as he lured the rest of us into taking it in the chin from his Demo overlords. It makes no logical sense.
It also cracks me up that Hillary is essentially Obama's right arm on the world stage, and yet I'm somehow supposed to vilify him while lauding her. Else I am "a tool of the patriarchy," or somesuch rubbish.
Please.
Your neo-liberal interventionist feminist poster girl isn't mine. I don't care for what she and her well-heeled interventionist sisters (and brothers) sell on the world stage, don't buy it, won't have it.
You're prepared to stand by and see hundreds
of thousands of them slaughtered. You're not dealing with that. This is dead children. Dead mothers. Dead fathers. The people who will get killed are loved very deeply by someone. What makes you think that you're on the side of peace?
The situation is horrible and we created it. But when we pull it out, it will immediately get worse and probably will be worse for decades. There are a lot of good people trying to find ways to prevent or minimize that inevitability. But the lefties advocating for immediate withdrawal aren't among them. Their solution is simple tolerance of thuggery - look the other way, It's none of our business. Well yes, it is - we created this mess.
It just sounds like a lot of cheap sophistry to me. We pull out. People get slaughtered and the people who pushed for withdrawal feel sorry for the dead. . It's really kind of demented.
Warren Christopher once said that diplomacy is about constructing a hall of dignity for your opponent to exit through. That's why it frequently doesn't look as enlightened as we'd like and why processes that do look enlightened frequently fail.
The Afghanis are facing down some incredible bad guys - bad guys that we created. But in the years after the Soviet withdrawal, 800,000 Afghanis perished. That's what they're afraid of facing again. That's why people are trying to find a way to prevent what we fear is the inevitable. And I cannot see how anyone who accepts that eventuality as superior to us staying for a while longer with a different set of policies that Bush's killcentric approach, is an advocate of peace.
The Taliban are immensely unpopular. In the region from which they come, they have a 21% favorable rating. It's lower - much lower - everywhere else. And that's because everyone knows what the Taliban will do once we leave. This is a life or death issue for them.
I'd like to hear what Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State has done specifically that you feel has cost lives in Afghanistan. Not what Gates has done. Not what Obama has done. What policy of Clinton's has made life worse for Afghanis. You obviously don't know the first thing about her history so what makes you think you know what she's doing here?
And How Many Are Dead Because Of Us...?
We can justify brutality because somebody else was brutal first? Our brutality is more high-minded than that of the Taliban?
What a sick joke.
This is why liberals by and large are useless in the anti-war movement. Historically, they love war, so long as their own figurehead is in charge of it. So long as there's something lucrative to be extracted from the country in question, they can justify any intervention, no matter how ugly.
OTOH, they can turn their back on countries without any material profit to offer as readily as their GOP buddies. Haiti, anyone?
That you can ask, over and over again, what Hillary has done to harm women around the world-- when she is at present the PAID RIGHT HAND of the president you claim to abhor, just floors me.
But I get it. It's about the personalities, not the institutions, for you. Fine. Whatever.
But those of us who look at institutions first and personalities second are not anyone's "tools." Least of all patriarchy's. If there's any institution in this country more patriarchal than the military machine, any institution that's a greater drain on "humanitarianism" at home, I'd sure like to hear what it might be.
Meanwhile, don't expect to impress us by continuing to lob that accusation our way. It won't wash.
For me, it's about saving lives.
Bush's policies were horrific and cost way too many lives. And as bad as they were, it still wasn't as bad as it was under the Taliban. That's how bad the Taliban are. And looking the other way as bullies slaughter a population just doesn't make one a peace advocate. It' just doesn't.
Two questions and I bet you can't answer either:
1. What well-known human rights groups in Afghanistan, composed of Afghanis, are demanding that we leave immediately?
2. And what policies that Clinton herself has advanced (she's opposed Obama plenty of times) do you feel has cost lives in Afghanistan? Specifics, please. Not Gates policies. Not Obama's policies. Clinton's policies.
I don't think you know the first thing that's going on over there. I don't think you know what efforts are being made to stabilize the country. I don't think you know what's being done to improve lives. I don't think you understand that the surge resulted in far fewer civilian deaths. I don't think you know that McChrystal, when he made the comment about us killing an "amazing number of people", was using those deaths to bring the special forces which were responsible for the amazing number of deaths into the policy realm that was seeking to (and has successfully) dramatically decrease the number of civilian deaths. I think you think he was bragging. He wasn't. The actions he took before he made that comment resulted in an immediate decrease in civilian deaths - that matters.
Life matters. Policies that save lives matter. We made the mess. Throwing our hands up and pulling out, because Bush was a sociopathic fuck up of the first order, and allowing innocent Afghanis to be slaughtered so we can say we're at peace is bullshit.
When people actually do stuff to make life better referring to it as throwing scraps is bad. If 400,000 lives are saved because we stabilize Afghanistan sufficiently to withstand what it will go through when we withdraw, that matters. You're saying it doesn't. I'm saying it does.
More people will die - hundreds of thousands more - if we do what you want. That's a bad policy.
Frankly,
I don't think you understand our history in Afghanistan or what's being done there right now.
I don't think you understand that the surge resulted in far fewer civilian deaths. I don't think you know that McChrystal, when he made the comment about us killing an "amazing number of people", was using those deaths to bring the special forces which were responsible for the amazing number of deaths into the policy realm that was seeking to (and has successfully) dramatically decrease the number of civilian deaths. I think you think he was bragging. He wasn't. The actions he took before he made that comment resulted in an immediate decrease in civilian deaths - that matters.
Actually, i know you don't because you wrote the above paragraph...which is full of, well, it's full of bullshit.
Well, this is a question of fact, yes?
So why not settle that factual issue first?
IIRC, the last COIN discussion -- if COIN is indeed the right term for our current Afghan strategy -- was light on linky goodness. As are the comments on this thread, so far.
Resolved: That counter-insurgency strategies adopted by US forces in Afghanistan have reduced civilian casualties.
Yes? Or no? Make your cases!
I think that there are a lot people
who think that we're just over there slaughtering people by the thousands. I don't believe that was ever the case, though Bush's execution of the war is indefensible all the way around. But even if we were doing that earlier, we aren't doing it now. I think that's what drives a lot of this - we're still haunted by the ghastly images of our war in Iraq and are applying those images to Afghanistan currently. That's wrong.
I only got one thing wrong in there.
This past year, the percentage of civilian deaths due to the conflict that are caused by "pro-government forces" has fallen as opposed to the overall number. Now, if you go back a couple years, my original statement is correct. We were killing a lot more people just a few years ago than we are now.
But so far you haven't demonstrated even a sliver of knowledge or awareness of what we're doing over there - so that's not impressive. It's kind of like you're just belching up the latest lefty talking point with no fundamental awareness of what real people, who are on the ground over there, are trying to accomplish.
Here's an article from the Afghanistan Conflict Monitor:
http://www.afghanconflictmonitor.org/civ...
So, if these trends continue for 2010, we'll be looking at around 2500 civilian deaths with around 600 of those caused by us.
But, if you go back to 2007, you'll find this:
Between April and August of 2007, we were responsible for around 500 deaths as were the insurgents. If those numbers held, that would put Americans responsible for around 1000 deaths in 2007. That's about 70% more than this year.
Now, here's a source that lists the various news reports of how many people were killed during Soviet occupation, in the immediate aftermath of occupation and even during the 90s. According to the Christian Science Monitor, 400,000 were killed in the 90s alone. Lots of other sources have the figure far higher:
http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat2...
What you seem completely unaware of, is that there are a lot of very smart people trying to prevent the kind of blood bath that Afghans experienced in the not-to-distant past. Counter-insurgency is a war-to-peace transition strategy. The idea, as I understand it, is to build up civil institutions and local communities to the point that they can withstand the forces that will be arrayed against them once the occupying force withdraws.
BA has spoken for the affirmative....
... and established a prima facie case for a Yes answer to the resolution. Is there a rebuttal?
Sure there's a rebuttal
For one, we don't really count casualties all the time/very well. It doesn't take much looking to find reports half-buried about deaths that we don't count. But anyway, as of Aug 10, 2010 the UN said:
"The number of civilians killed in the Afghan war jumped 25 percent in the first half of 2010 compared with the same period last year, with insurgents responsible for the spike, the United Nations said in a report Tuesday."
Of course there's never a definition of "insurgent" or "Taliban". Further, the DoD is notorious at this point for calling anyone it kills an "insurgent".
But that's not the point i was making in the original reply. McChrystal didn't make the statement to put the policy "in play" or whatever. It was his goddamned policy. He got famous for running night time SF raids that have a long track record of killing women and children...sometimes even digging the bullets out of their bodies so that it doesn't look like US forces did the killing.
And i replied to the wrong comment so i cannot look at the statistics presented.
Here:
In January, he order coalition troops to avoid night time raids. If they felt a night time raid was necessary, they were ordered to bring Afghan forces with them:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/06/world/...
In February, this happened:
And in March, he brought Special Forces directly under his command:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/world/...
And here is McChrystal's complete comment where he talks about how we have killed an amazing number of people. This is in response to a question asked of him by one of our military:
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.co...
It may not be in response to the night time raids, but he is talking about his drive to reduce the number of civilian casualties.
Yeah, and?
What else is he supposed to say? The fact of the matter is that all the people already killed, disappeared and tortured can't be brought back to life. All this happy fuzzy talk might play well for Americans but it isn't going to change a damned thing.
It was a fool's errand on the afternoon of 9/11 when anyone with half a brain and a decently used library card could have predicted that we'd be in this situation ten years on. It's a fool's errand now. There will never be a self-sufficient Afghan National Army that holds a monopoly on violence, not under the regime we're developing (continuing to arm unaccountable factions). By which i mean one that the Afghan government can afford.
We're going to be doing exactly what we're doing in Afghanistan in another decade and we won't be any further along than we are right now.
Oh and,
You just go ahead and hero worship a guy with a huge amount of blood on his hands, blood spilled in some awful ways. This is why i refuse to be a member of the Democratic Party or have any association with it: same old imperial foreign policy that the GOP plays. Same military hero worship. Same shit, different rationalizations.
I like how you throw all
I like how you throw all those stats without the disclaimer that the Afghanistan Conflict Monitor uses:
"The Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) is also collecting data, but the efforts of both agencies are hampered by insecurity and a lack of resources. As a result, figures released by these agencies likely represent a substantial undercount."
Everybody is wrong but you, eh?
The fact of the matter is that far fewer people are dying now than will die if we pull out. You know it's true and you don't care.
Hmmm...
Was that shown on this thread? Even if COIN means fewer casualties that doesn't mean more deaths if we pull out, no? Have I missed an exchange?
That is, as I understand it, the entire point
of COIN - finding ways to stabilize a country sufficiently so that it can withstand the waves of violence that are unleashed in the aftermath of an occupying force leaving. The Taleban are already escalating their level of violence as the above links demonstrate. What we're trying to do is build both their civil affairs divisions and their communities up sufficiently that they will be able to rebuff the Taleban.
This isn't about some George Bush fantasy of democracy. The people who are developing COIN are liberals who are trying to find ways to decrease violence and death. We can't always prevent a lunatic like Bush from going to war, but we can try to find ways to make our disengagement less violent and costly to locals. There are huge efforts going on in Afghanistan all over the nation with military civil affairs and international aid groups trying to rebuild as much infrastructure as possible, while rebuilding communities organically that will hopefully have the strength to withstand the Taleban. Is there lots of corruption as Lex is alleging? I"m sure there is. But farmers are still getting their irrigation ditches cleaned up and repaired. Local mosques are being rebuilt and repainted. New schools are going up and broken windows are being replaced at the old ones. There is a structure being built that's worthwhile. Imperfect but worthwhile.
If you don't read Abu Muqawama, here's the link:
http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama
What I read in these discussions is a lack of awareness that we really have changed policies. Now, we still have a massive amount of people with guns over there so there will still be problems. But for the 60%+ of Afghanis who don't want us to leave, it is a far more manageable problem than the Taleban.
COIN
It doesn't work without a legitimate host government. I mean, it probably doesn't work at all, just like all the great mystery religions, but that's a different topic. It cannot build a legitimate government. Besides, we're not actually practicing COIN at the moment, we're doing colonial pacification operations.
At this point, the ISAF/US is having to admit that turnout for the parliamentary elections was waaaay down and violence was waaay up. The whole point of the surge II, central Asian bugaloo was to pacify for the sake of elections. In other words, fail...again.
And how will the war's supporters for the sake of human rights feel when Karzai (as corrupt as they come - which is the only way they're going to come in Afghanistan after 30 years of war) starts making deals with the Taliban/AGI? Because it's coming...not that the Afghan government we're fighting to protect isn't already full of war criminals and mafioso. And he'll cut those deals with or without us, though at the moment it sounds like Petraeus is for it. One must save face i suppose.
So COIN is good because "liberals" are developing it, but leaving Afghanistan is bad because it's an argument made by "Lefties". Am i missing something?
The bigger problem with COIN is that it makes a convenient excuse for armed intervention based on pie-in-the-sky moral purposes. But in the end, it is a tactic not a strategy. And if it were to be done well, it would not be done how we're doing it with the tools we're using.
I'm starting to think your entire self-esteem
is dependent upon the Taleban succeeding. Reread your own posts. You're rooting for it.
Uh
A great many Afghan women are being slaughtered right now. They are not significantly more free than they were 10 years ago. And all of it is happening under the watchful eye of the USG. In fact, violence of all sorts has only grown under the Obama escalation. The Taliban (in the loose definition that the USG uses) has now gotten a strong foothold in northern provinces where it had none before.
And then there's all the Afghan women and children that we're killing.
Besides, the real Pottery Barn rule is: You broke it, you bought, and get the fuck out of the store...not you bought it and would you like to redecorate while you're here.
There is nothing, nothing, in the current US strategy that is even designed to increase long-term stability in Afghanistan.
The warlordism and violence is a feature, not a bug.
Yeah? How many are being slaughtering now?
Us. Not the Taliban. And how close is that number to the hundreds of thousands that died in the years after Soviet withdrawal?
You seem to think 800,000 dying is no big deal cuz we're killing people now, so let's see it. Let's see where, say, 50k civilians have been killed by US troops in the past six months, or so.
That's the thing about people who advocate immediate withdrawal. They never seem to have any awareness of what the numbers actually are. They don't seem to know about the vast efforts going on between the military and NGOs to create an Afghanistan that can withstand the rage that will flow once we leave. Nor do they seem to care. They seem to have this idea that we can withdraw and life will get better - well, no it won't.
Over 60% of Afghanis wants us to stay. There are very good reasons for that.
So wait,
Your entire argument rests on the fact that we haven't been responsible for as many civilian deaths as the Red Army? Hurray!
So we're going to never mind the fact that Carter authorized the covert destabilization of Afghanistan six months before the Soviets entered to provoke them to enter? We're going to ignore that at it's peak, the US was putting close to $1B (inflation adjusted) into promoting the Afghan-Soviet War, matched by Saudi Arabia and not including "charitable" donations to the cause.
We're going to ignore that when the Soviets left, there was an agreement with the US that both sides would stop arming factions. An agreement that Bob Gates convinced Bush the Greater to abrogate because he was sure that Najibullah would be swinging from a lamp post in a matter of weeks. So we shipped captured heavy weapons from the First Gulf War into Afghanistan. How long before Najibullah actually swung from a lamp post?
Don't give me the "we can't abandon Afghanistan again" line. We never abandoned Afghanistan, we've been meddling all along. And the same people who were doing the meddling then are still in charge of doing it.
I'm not giving you any "Lefty" talking points about how we should withdraw. I knew full well that this is where we'd end up when this whole thing started. We should have never "invaded" to "topple the Taliban" in the first place. (Quotes because "we" didn't do any of the toppling. We armed the NA and various warlords and claimed the victory as our own.)
Why don't you provide some numbers (i already know them) for what percentage of aid/reconstruction/etc. money actually stays in Afghanistan and doesn't get recycled in the great national-security-socialism scheme.
Why don't you explain why it has never been a policy to disarm the population, but instead to arm certain factions of the population. Like building up an unaccountable "special forces" of Afghans to be the next generation of warlords.
Why don't you explain why the US can't decide if it wants a strong central government or decentralized power structures based on local militias...so it simply tries to do both. And follow up with how that will "fix" Afghanistan.
This is not now, nor has it ever been about helping the people of Afghanistan or creating a stable Afghan state...which isn't to say that individuals involved in the effort aren't working in hopes of that. It certainly isn't about helping the women and children of Afghanistan. If it is then we might want to stop killing them (and, sorry, but a drop in killing them...according to USG sources...is not the same as not killing them).
Imperialism dressed up as humanitarianism is still imperialism, and the 21st Century white(wo)man's burden is just as bunk as it was in the Victorian era.
You wanna help the Afghan people, you do not do it with the US military. Do. Not. Because it A. isn't any good at this sort of thing and B. is going to lose. Occupation forces never defeat local insurgencies over the long term, not without incredibly brutal tactics.
Should I throw you a life raft?
Our policy in Afghanistan from Carter until very recently was atrocious. Immoral. Inhumane. Short sighted. You want to hear that shit defended, go somewhere else. But right now, you've revealed that you aren't reading or comprehending what I'm saying. Is your problem ego? An inability to think and reason? Or a simple lack of humanity that doesn't allow you to understand that saving lives matters more than you being right?
I'm correcting the misinformation you've spewed about a war to peace transition effort that began several months ago - that's what I'm doing. I'm trying to participate and encourage a dialogue that may help prevent hundreds of thousands of Afghans from being slaughtered again.
This is about saving lives - that's all it is. And that doesn't seem to be something that matters to you. My argument is about the fact that if we pull out now, hundreds of thousands more people will die than if we stay for a while longer. Those hundreds of thousands of lives matter. At least to me. Maybe not to you.
No it isn't
This is about politics and imperialism. You cannot say how many people will die if the US left Afghanistan today. And by your reckoning to "save lives" we'll just have to stay in Afghanistan forever. Look how the parliamentary elections went...and not the initial press releases from ISAF/US.
Besides, the US will cut and run* as soon as it can save face. That will come when Karzai cuts deals with Hekmatyar, the Taliban (though nobody bothers to define that word anymore) and various warlords.
Democracy cannot be spread by a military unless a military is removing a foreign occupier. Sending an offensive military into a situation like this is just becoming an occupation force and/or embroiling a foreign army in a civil war. And if this action was for the benefit of the Afghan people it would not have been done as it was or as it is.
Nor is this about pacifism or isolationism. Don't start wars you can't win, and don't start wars without a clear objective. Hell, ten years into this one and we still don't have a clear objective. But we can be sure that what we call the Taliban will still be in Afghanistan long after we've left.
*We'll keep permanent bases and airfields forever, but those are there for the ability to harass Russia and China. This is Afghanistan, all the same Great Game rules and gambits are still in effect. It has always been the pivot point for dominating Eurasia. That's why we went in. It never had, nor does it now have, anything at all to do with window dressing served up to the American people as justification. So this isn't about me being "right". It's about the Afghans being, once again, stabbed in the eye with the sharp end of the great power game stick.
Oh, wait, I just read this:
That's delusional.
Yes, there are lots of people trying to figure out how to stabilize Afghanistan and a lot of those people are in the military and in the State Department. There's also the UN and lots of aids groups working their ass off over there - frequently in conjunction with US efforts - to build Afghan communities up and stabilize them.
Like i said elsewhere
Please provide data on how much reconstruction/aid money actually stays in Afghanistan. Maybe some data on how many projects are being run by Afghans after being designed by Afghans.
You know what happened the last time the US was in Afghanistan "building up" communities? Our hydroelectric/irrigation projects salinated the soil in most of Helmand province, making it nearly unfarmable for anything but poppies. Sorry if i'm not ready to hold my breath for things being different this time.
Oh, and the embassy complex guarded by Madame Secretary's mercenary forces. That's fucking helpful. Just blatant imperialism.
I've backed my stuff up. You haven't.
You want to know how much money is being spent, go find out and report back.
I already know
I've written a fair amount on Afghanistan. I'm asking you because you're trying to prove something. And you haven't backed your stuff up because you purposefully neglected to include the disclaimer.
Oh, you read minds too!
I'm not making that point. I'm simply pointing out that there is work being done. I'm sure there is tons of corruption. But there is still work being done.
I don't think anyone believes that hard and fast numbers can be had on the number of civilian deaths. But I also don't believe the numbers are misleading. You got the whole McChrystal thing wrong - not me. You talk a lot but there doesn't seem to be much there besides "I told you so". I don't see a shred of concern for the people of Afghanistan and i don't see any real comprehension of the dilemma the Afghan people face.
And you aren't on the ground in Afghanistan so it costs you nothing to advocate against those people lives - which is, of course, what you're doing.
No,
I'm working on McChrystal's long track record as the man who ran covert SF operations. You're taking him at his word after one comment. Part of his job was message control. I'm not going to believe anything a guy like McChrystal says to the press until there's a long, solid proof behind it.
The website you quoted from said that the deaths were almost certainly undercounted, not me. I'd question the tallies as they relate to "civilians" versus what ISAF/US classifies as "insurgent". (And of course DoD would have no reason to lie or undercount, now would they...)
Oh, i have concern for the Afghan people. I'm concerned about them being subjected to a foreign occupation that supports a very long list of warlords with a very long track record of crimes against humanity. And you're pretending that because civilian casualties may be down over the last six months that the previous 9.5 years just don't count. I'll bet that they count for the Afghans who lost family, eh?
You have an uncouth habit of putting words in
people's mouth. The sad truth is, of course, that you don't care about death - neither the ones, nor the ones of the past. You don't talk about tragedy and human consequence. You talk about how you knew what was going to happen. And apparently, you think good people should get out of the way of your prediction. afterall, you couldn't possibly be wrong about anything.
Actually, the purpose isn't the point
As BA points out, that goes to intent, which is very difficult to show from text alone (absent a direct admission).
How exactly do the disclaimers undermine these precise figures? All figures are a bit fuzzy edged in the fog of war, so how are these disclaimers different from that?
Got a link on those IN students?
I remember the other episodes, but not that one.
That's a woman that both Gigi and I
interviewed for our respective documentaries. We Will Not Be Silenced is online, of course, and I believe that she's included.
Her 16 year old grandson and several of his friends were fed breakfast and bussed to an early voting site. They were given a palm card that indicated for whom they should vote. After he and his friends finished, they were returned and given lunch. Maybe an Ipod as well, but i could be wrong about that. He gave the palm card to his grandmother and she turned it over to the Clinton campaign.
"After he and his friends finished..."
Ick. That sounds awful. And was awful.
Well, I'll fess up.
I'm not one of the better writers here but that line was a direct result me of not wearing my glasses while I type. I'm one of those people who always wants to make a single sentence do the work of ten.
Ok, "After he and his friends voted...."
Better?
No, not a criticism...
... or at least not a negative one. "Finished" is the exact right word, and very bleak it is, too.
Basement Angel, I clicked over from recent comments, at first
glance thought you were describing how voting had taken place in Afghanistan's recent elections! Then I read the whole comment and whole thread, and realized it was corruption of our own primary voting system.
So, I googled the documentary, We Will Not Be Silenced -- and have to watch the whole thing, but later. Good stuff that I did see.
Yeah, We Will Not Be Silenced is phenomenal
I couldn't disagree more (I think) on our imperial mission in Afghanistan, but that movie is great, and a great testimonial (all senses of that word).
So this stuff about political views can get complicated, can't it?
This is absolutely spot on, Hugh
I had no trouble reading between the lines, either.
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