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Why the Ukrainian truce will hold

I have to admit that I thought it would have collapsed by now, as did the Saker (too lazy to find the link). It hasn't yet and here's a good theory why:

The war in eastern Ukraine, which has had more impact on the European economy than any news coming out of Frankfurt or Brussels, appears to be ending. Despite the sporadic attacks that have wrecked previous ceasefire attempts.

Investors have mostly assumed that the ceasefire would not hold, either because Russian President Vladimir Putin is deceitful and greedy for more territorial conquest, or because Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko would not accept the splintering of his country that Russia demands. But this fashionable pessimism is probably wrong.

The ceasefire no longer relies on good faith or benevolence but on a convergence of interests: [Henry the K would be proud]. Putin has achieved all his key objectives, and Poroshenko recognizes that trying to reverse militarily the Russian gains would be national suicide.

So, I assume, good, or not as bad as we might imagine.

I do feel vindicated in the idea that Crimea was all Putin wanted. Who wants the decaying industrial infrastructure of the Donetsk Basin?

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jo6pac's picture
Submitted by jo6pac on

I do feel vindicated in the idea that Crimea was all Putin wanted. Who wants the decaying industrial infrastructure of the Donetsk Basin?

True and Russia will help the East but doesn't not see a future were the East Ukraine become part of Russia. The Russians have already started moving some of the manufacturing that they own in the east to Russia. It will be interesting to see how Amerika stops it's proxies the Nazis that Victoria Nuland hired to over throw the legally elected govt. Yes legal but still corrupt.

Then again the neo-conns of Amerika never sleep so who knows what madness they will come with next.

pmj6's picture
Submitted by pmj6 on

Your vindication is well earned. Had Putin wanted the Donbass, he'd have taken it at the same time as he took the Crimea. But that would have made the remaining Ukrainian population even more anti-Russian, while keeping the Donbass as part of Ukraine means it's a counterweight to pro-Western sentiments elsewhere in the country.

I would only add that the convergence of interest also includes the EU and even the US. Everyone seems to be looking for an excuse to end the sanctions against Russia, which are costly for all concerned. I think Poroshenko got the message when Obama refused to grant Ukraine the "non-NATO ally" status.