Why the Ukrainian truce will hold
I have to admit that I thought it would have collapsed by now, as did the Saker (too lazy to find the link). It hasn't yet and here's a good theory why:
The war in eastern Ukraine, which has had more impact on the European economy than any news coming out of Frankfurt or Brussels, appears to be ending. Despite the sporadic attacks that have wrecked previous ceasefire attempts.
Investors have mostly assumed that the ceasefire would not hold, either because Russian President Vladimir Putin is deceitful and greedy for more territorial conquest, or because Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko would not accept the splintering of his country that Russia demands. But this fashionable pessimism is probably wrong.
The ceasefire no longer relies on good faith or benevolence but on a convergence of interests: [Henry the K would be proud]. Putin has achieved all his key objectives, and Poroshenko recognizes that trying to reverse militarily the Russian gains would be national suicide.
So, I assume, good, or not as bad as we might imagine.
I do feel vindicated in the idea that Crimea was all Putin wanted. Who wants the decaying industrial infrastructure of the Donetsk Basin?