Why Democrats are going to lose in 2010
As Yoggi Berra said, predictions are hard, especially about the future. Even so, I think the Massachusetts special election for US Senate offers us a preview of what is about to unfold. It is not 1994 all over again.
There was a steady drum beat of pseudo scandals that dominated the air waves in 1994 which has no equivalent today. Moreover, we did not have blogosphere to push back in those days. There is only a faint resemblance between now and then.
In 1994 the people who stayed home were the marginal voters. These are to sort of people who vote in Presidential years, but are less likely to vote any other time. These are people who don't see that it makes any difference and who have to be coaxed into voting. This same group will stay home in 2010. Their issues, unemployment, predatory lending, and foreclosure have not been addressed, they are more discouraged than ever. They are disproportionately women. Women stayed home in 1994, they will do so in even greater numbers in 2010.
A different group of women (and their male frends) are going to stay home or vote for third parties in 2010. They are women like Rochelle Sivian, women who in the past have not only been reliable Democratic voters, they have been among the most active and skilled volunteers. When someone like Sivian walks out of your party, you don't just lose her vote, you don't just lose her volunteer time, you lose all the people she brought with her.
We are talking about the sort of women who would not only work a phone bank, we are talking about the sort of women who could recruit a dozen volunteers to work the phone bank with them. We are talking about the sort of women who, single handedly, even in a bad year, deliver an additional 100 votes for Democrats just on their own efforts, through their personal networks. When they walk out of the party, they take all that with them.
That is why all that la-la-la-I-can't-hear-you is so destructive. That is why the Obot driven purges are going to kill the Democratic party.
Look for it to be a terrible year for Democrats and a great year for third parties.