We have a photo of journos showing an iPad shot of Snowden to passengers deplaning from the Aeroflot flight to Hong Kong. Presumably if he had been recognized, we would have heard. Leading to the inference that he wasn't on the plane. The delphic statement from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) reads:
Mr Edward Snowden left Hong Kong today (June 23) on his own accord for a third country through a lawful and normal channel.
Doesn't say where and doesn't say what channel.
For all we know, Snowden left Hong Kong via Chinese junk (see Le Carré's The Honorable Schoolboy) and thence to Macau (another SAR) or Hanoi.
There are no direct flights from either Hanoi or Macua to Gauyaqil, Ecuador, and the safest route I found went through Madrid and Finland (as most definitely opposed to JFK or BKK). The alternative would be Hanoi or Macau to Havana, but unfortunately, due to "US travel restrictions" I cannot even fucking check Kayak or Expedia, etc., to see if there are direct flights from Hanoi to Havana.
Anyhow, I'm tossing my hat in the ring for that theory: Travel from Hong Kong by sea, and if there's a direct Hanoi-Havana commercial air flight, that way.
At this point we might remember that the Ecuadorian Foreign Minister was in Hanoi, and would doubtless have the authority to issue any necessary travel documents.