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UK bookie already paying out on "No" vote for Scottish Independence

Globe and Mail:

Polls say the outcome of the Scottish independence vote is too close to call, but gambling company Betfair is already paying out more than £100,000 ($179,000) to customers who backed a “No” vote.

The referendum on Thursday when voters in Scotland decide whether to split from the United Kingdom has attracted record levels of interest from British gamblers.

Bookmakers sometimes pay out early on sports events when they consider the result a foregone conclusion, judging that the publicity they generate is worth the risk should there be a surprise turnaround.

“We’ve decided that ‘No’ is most likely to be the winning vote in 3 days’ time, so we’ve put our money where our mouth is,” online betting specialist Betfair said
on Tuesday. The offer applied only to bets placed with Betfair’s sportsbook – the smaller part of its business where the company sets the odds itself.

Betfair makes most of its money from an exchange where gamblers can bet against each other. Betting patterns on the exchange indicate a 79 per cent probability of a “No” vote, according to company spokesman James Midmer, reinforcing the company’s confidence in the outcome.

One London-based gambler will collect £973,000 if Scotland rejects independence after staking £800,000 on a “No” vote with William Hill, Britain’s largest bookmaker.

So that's one answer. I suppose we'll know soon!

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nippersdad's picture
Submitted by nippersdad on

I'm suspicious.

With seven percent undecided, seems like 175,000 Pounds would be a small price to pay for the impression such a story might make in the headlines just prior to the vote. I wonder who made it worth their while?

nippersdad's picture
Submitted by nippersdad on

At that price it could have been just about anyone. Cameron's career is over if he has to preside over a dissolution primarily due to the sort of policies he has been pushing, for example, but the banksters would be suspects #1. They, too, have a lot to lose from the blowback.

nippersdad's picture
Submitted by nippersdad on

Two things:

Has anyone been reading the speeches?


I particularly recommend Brown's. Citing wars to a generation inured to them and with no personal memory of the one in question cannot be a good idea. These are people who specifically want to get rid of bases and bombs, after all. Nor can references to social programs that he, himself, laid the foundations for privatization of. I have to wonder if any of those people even know which buttons to push anymore; reminds me of a quote I used to hear a lot, "Does anyone here know how to play this game?"

And, mea culpa, I got Lambert's numbers wrong. 170,000 Pounds shows up nowhere in his story; my memory sucks. I think it was 135,000 Pounds or the equivalent of 175,000 Dollars, or something.

Sorry about that.

marxmarv's picture
Submitted by marxmarv on

I have to wonder if any of those people even know which buttons to push anymore; reminds me of a quote I used to hear a lot, "Does anyone here know how to play this game?"

Gamer culture offers the term "button-mashing" for play by desperately pushing buttons on the controller with no particular intent or skill, to keep the player moving and striking in the hope of wearing the enemy(ies) down. Pretty much the opposite of the rope-a-dope, and about as likely to succeed as you'd expect. Which seems to me a most apropos description of the relevant propaganda.

nippersdad's picture
Submitted by nippersdad on

Game theory sounds really interesting. I have heard a lot about it in reference to other things, but never seen a concise explanation of it. I need to find a good book.......something like "game theory for dummies", have you any suggestions?