Oil FAIL: Top-Kill/Junk Shot Fails...
[BP's Suttles: "We have not stopped the flow." * [UPI, 2010-05-28, 9:52AM] BP has tried the junk shot [Online WSJ, 2010-05-28, 9:52AM].** Much near real time commentary on leaks, and the riser at TOD***, including new cracks in the riser last night. As they ask at Eschaton, if BP shut down the top kill Wednesday Midnight, "What the hell**** were we watching all day yesterday"? A fine wrap-up at Yves place. Will Obama call in the Navy if the junk shot fails? And this in Izvestia from USCG's Allen looks like pre-photo-op happy talk to me; read the detail in the body of the story. Rockman summary below; he doesn't think the riser is the issue; the issue is, as it has been, the BOP [1:18PM] --lambert]
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The Junk Shot tore the top of the BOP riser all to hell. Made it worse.
It's all over at my place. http://monkeyfister.blogspot.com/
Lambert, feel free to snag what you'd like from my place to put into a proper post. I'm exhausted from documenting it, and emotionally wrecked from watching it happen in real time.*****
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NOTE * More from Suttles (link above):
"We have not yet stopped the flow, so the operation hasn't yet achieved its objective, but what we do believe we have done is successfully pumped some of this mud into the well bore.
Well, um, yeah.
NOTE ** More from Online WSJ (link above):
BP officials said late Thursday that much of the injected kill mud was flowing out into the ocean instead of going down the well.
NOTE *** Understatement of the century at TOD (link above):
I find in reviewing my analyses that I was at times misled by appearances of transparency, when it really wasn't there.
Indeed, the public relations efforts -- and no doubt the disinformation attacks-- that we are not seeing, are probably as amazing as the technical efforts that we are (as we suppose) seeing.
NOTE **** Aw, come on. You can say Fuck! And back in the day, you would have!
NOTE ***** Can somebody explain to me why we don't have paid journalists monitoring the cams in real time, instead of exhausted bloggers? Or maybe management could throw petty cash to some intern for doing this, instead of sending them round town to get the CEO's chihuahua their weekly pedicure?
[L]et me offer a summary of where I think we are right now. I think I have all the facts but if not someone will point out the error. One confusion seems to be the source of the oil/NG leak. Some focus on the oil/NG coming out of different sections of the riser. The riser isn't the source of the oil/NG. It's coming out of the well head/BOP. Some of that flow may be entering the riser and leaking elsewhere out of it. But if every hole in the riser were plugged the same amount of oil/NG would be leaking into the GOM from the well head/BOP. As far as the top kill working I don't think we can tell that ourselves from watching the video. The top kill is a simple concept: pump drilling mud into the well head/BOP at a sufficient pressure to stop the oil/NG flowing out. If the connection between the well head/BOP and the line carrying the mud wasn't leaking then this would be a standard kill process: increase pump pressure high enough to push the oil/NG back down the csg into the rocks at the bottom of the well. But the connection apparently leaks like a sieve. An earlier report indicated they had pumped 30,000 bbls of mud down. But the csg in the blow out can only hold a max of 1,400 bbls of mud if it were completely filled. Obviously most of the mud leaked out.
Can we tell if oil/NG is flowing out of the well or if we're watching the drilling mud leaking out? We can't because we don't know exactly when they have the mud pumps working or not. Of course, BP knows. If they have the pumps off and they see something flowing out of the well head/BOP it can only be one thing: oil/NG. More importantly they would also know they haven't killed the well. If the pumps are on they will see lots of stuff flowing. Be it the mud leaking or the oil/NG continuing to flow is anyone's guess at that point. And killing a flowing well is exactly like being pregnant: you either are or you're not. You can't partially stop a well from flowing. If you did get some kill mud down the well but if it's still flowing then that mud is coming right back up and out the well. That is the basic definition of a blow out. If you've gotten enough mud down the hole to stop the flow then you've stopped the flow. But it might not be stopped for good. Any NG that might still be escaping into the well at the bottom can mix with the mud and lighten it enough to cause the head to be lost and begin the well flowing. Such "gas cut mud" is often the cause of many well control situations.