Math is funny. It's a mystery to people like me, but one thing I know: when they "figure it out" they more or less, you know, figure it out. That is, while there may be 'other' ways to get to four than 2+2, it's still always true that 2+2 = 4. That's how I look at a lot of polling organizations. Did you make it to 4? Were you close? Not 'now,' but 'after,' when we can all see where they went, the trends and ideas you predicted were ascendant, and how succesful they turned out to be in truth. Haw, I love some comment I just read, "this is a reality-based community." Indeed, My Friends. So which of them are here with us in RealityLand?

In the spirit of spitting on reality, let me roll with my initial impressions as a mostly non-consumer of media product, as I reviewed these numbers. I think you old-timers call this 'stream of consciousness' blogging.

First, the non-corporate media projection sites updated counts:

Election Projection: Obama 364-174
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 364, McCain 171, 3 tied
Fivethirtyeight: Obama 344-194 McCain
Pollster.com: Obama 313, McCain 157, Toss-up 68
Real Clear Politics: Obama 286, McCain 155, Toss-up 97

These are all tools used by those of us here in the Intertube. So we've got, what's that called? Ah yes, 'memory.' And more importantly, caches. So it's much harder to fuck with the numbers and get people to believe them. I like the fact that 538 is smack in the middle of this bunch. I hope it means they are scientific, and not swayed by hype or distraction. 344 seems high to me, on the actual election day, but I can see it happening if things all work out well for the O.

Now some good news, major media sites admitting Obama would win the election if it was today:

CNN: Obama 272-185 McCain
New York Times: Obama 277-185 McCain
Washington Post: Obama 319-219 McCain
NPR: Obama 273-163 McCain
Yahoo: Obama 344-167 McCain

This tells you a lot about the age and races of people who consume this product. And about what TPTB want them to think. The WaPo is read by too many Villagers who already understand the Fix is In, so there's no point in maintaining the horse race for them; they're bored of it by now. CNN, "America's News Channel," has some more airtime to sell, so they've got to keep it going. Yahoo is just the opposite; it's consumers want instant understanding of the latest data, and that's what those numbers produce. The Old Grey...I won't go there, well, but I think we finally have a number with which to evaluate the "balance" between DLC Dems and Bush loyalists in the Village, or at least at the Times employee lunchroom. NPR doesn't surprise me in the least, but gosh! Am I going to have fun with my apologist-for-them relation in this post, or what? I guess keeping the Soccer Mom askeert is their function. Both NPR and the NYT seem to have been assigned the dubious job of making it OK for white racists who've been curbed into being silent about their racism, to vote for a light-skinned man of African heritage who is "only" half-white.

But I found two stragglers still awarding the State of Denial's negative EC votes to Obama so that he stays under 270:

MSNBC: Obama 264-163 McCain
CBS News: Obama 259-163 McCain

Honestly, I find these two the most telling. CBS Snooze = where the old people go. Sorry if that's too crude, but this is one of those "right hand side of the bell curve" thingees. I guess those folks need to be reassured. About what, I'm not going to bother. But think about it. Where does Unreality need to be most strenuously applied? Upon the elder class, who can't be allowed to understand that the older man running is actually the one who'll be the most harsh upon their situation. Or perhaps who can't be allowed to understand that the younger man in the race is about to eliminate their social security in the name of "bailing out" banker friends. To 'save the economy,' you know.

MSNBC seems to be a contest between Celebrities. Keith! And that lesbian everyone's talking about these days, I think her name is Rachel. Haw, I think we made eyes at each other at a gaii bar once. But anyway, the MSNBC number is the one I find the most interesting. The people who work there know that Obama is going to win. But the egos who are paid to be on all those shows...is it that group alone who massage this number into "it's still a tossup" territory? How many millions are we talking about here, in terms of media personalities who've deeply invested in the Republican/Bush brand, and literally can't afford to let go?

Polls are funny things, and I agree with Atrios. We should all just ignore them and focus on our chosen work.

I also checked Fox, ABC and the USA Today but they don't have projected maps that I saw.

Well, that's so obvious I won't even go there. Sorry to see USA Today on that list, tho. They've bucked some trends, during this last 8 years. I guess that was just psyops. ;-)