Corrente

If you have "no place to go," come here!

The Four-Year Effect?

vastleft's picture

The Forer Effect:

Psychologist Barry Beyerstein believes that "hope and uncertainty evoke powerful psychological processes that keep all occult and pseudoscientific character readers in business." We are constantly trying "to make sense out of the barrage of disconnected information we face daily" and "we become so good at filling in to make a reasonable scenario out of disjointed input that we sometimes make sense out of nonsense." We will often fill in the blanks and provide a coherent picture of what we hear and see, even though a careful examination of the evidence would reveal that the data is vague, confusing, obscure, inconsistent and even unintelligible.

The Effect revealed here:



And here:

“I am new enough on the national political scene that I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views. As such, I am bound to disappoint some, if not all, of them.” -- Barack Obama

0
No votes yet

Comments

bringiton's picture
Submitted by bringiton on

Excruciatingly human, pattern-sensing. Not something we can easily overcome, even when we are aware of the tendency.

Very bright, rigorously trained scientists can run off after an idea they’ve become attached to, seeing only the bits and pieces of data and impressions that fit with their established pattern and disregarding – or not seeing at all – those that do not. The effect can result in a mania, destroying lives and fortunes.

Something for everyone to keep in mind.

Davidson's picture
Submitted by Davidson on

What distinguishes generic cold reading from what seems to be happening with Obama fandom is how reactionary the believers are, facts be damned. Even without the misogynistic need for HRC to be put in her place, there has been this unmistakable desperation to have Obama somehow magically stop all the madness and have the world think better of us.

Clinton did scare people, by pouring cold reality on such escapism. Her die-hard focus on policy, competence, and (most deflating) hard work, kept reminding everyone of the epic mess on our hands. Also, I believe that because she represented what life was like before Bush, it made many realize our collective loss all the more.

Submitted by lambert on

"When you're young, you think you're unique."

Change we're waiting for, and all that....

[x] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Zolodoco's picture
Submitted by Zolodoco on

I think this effect dims with age and experience or at least experience. Age alone obviously isn't enough. Once you reach the stage where you've realized and know first-hand that people, including yourself, are very much alike and have similar tendencies this sort of cold reading loses its power.

tnjen's picture
Submitted by tnjen on

I'm so glad you mentioned that because it has seemed to me that many in the creative class keep coming back to that point as if the world "loving Obama" means that all of our problems will magically end. What's worse, I remember reading an interview with one of Obama's advisers (I believe it was Samantha Power) and having my jaw drop when she implied that the sheer wonderfulness that is Obama would mean world leaders would want their photos taken with him and be so romanced by his 'Obamaness' that they'd just want to do his will.

Submitted by lambert on

Quoted here:

What does [Obama] offer? First and foremost: his face. Think of it as the most effective potential re-branding of the United States since Reagan.

Sigh.

[x] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Submitted by Paul_Lukasiak on

What distinguishes generic cold reading from what seems to be happening with Obama fandom is how reactionary the believers are, facts be damned. Even without the misogynistic need for HRC to be put in her place, there has been this unmistakable desperation to have Obama somehow magically stop all the madness and have the world think better of us.

I would bet that true believers in astrology, tarot, etc would have the exact same reaction to the "cold reading" experiment that we are seeing among Obama's supporters in the face of the FISA "betrayal". That is, while they will acknowledge the fact that its possible to "fool" people with "cold reading" techniques, that does not mean there is any need to re-examine what lead them to believe in astrology/tarot in the first place -- and they would remain true believers.

Thus, while Greenwald insists that "we" must do a better job of vetting candidates in the future, he still displays no interest in actually examining the fraudulent nature of Obama's candidacy -- rather, he remains a true believer in the "evil" of McCain, and the inevitable, albeit imperfect, superiority of Obama as a candidate.