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Tell me again why Hillary should throw in the towel when it's a tie?

polls

Why? Because the Village, as usual, wants to pick our President for us, and has decided that Obama is the chosen one (or, at least, the chosen Democrat)?

Why? Because the older woman should always give way to the younger and more charismatic man?

And then there's that pesky matter of Universal Health Care, which Obama keeps demagoguing with untruthful flyers, instead of fixing his broken, insurance company-friendly plan. 47 million of us need the Democrats to come through for us on that one. Why should we go with the Villager's judgment when they're always wrong about everything?

Especially when, in terms of policy outcomes, 47 million of us are better off with Hillary?

NOTE Poll via Washington Monthly.

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BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

She leads comfortably in Ohio - see http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-P...

And, while the Survey USA Texas poll has Obama moving into the lead, Hillary leads among Democrats who have already voted 51-46 (see http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo...). Hillary leads Obama among Democrats (49-47), while he beats her handily with Republicans and Independents, I'd say that I'm paranoid about non-Dems picking our nominee, except it's not paranoia if they are really out to get you. Another good stat for Hillary is that only 38% of her voters said they could change their mind, while 46% of his said this.

Given that Hillary could still win with the voters, she must be convinced to drop out. It's Obama's only sure path to the nomination.

Joe Bourgeois's picture
Submitted by Joe Bourgeois on

that I am not arguing that Clinton should drop out, but --
Gallup seems to be an outlier here. Here's CBS/NYT and USA Today/Gallup.
Furthermore, I don't know of anybody who's making the argument that Clinton should drop out or doesn't have the right to continue contesting the nomination -- though I may simply have not bumped into that argument.

Submitted by Paul_Lukasiak on

Hillary Clinton is on a roll. After losing 3 straight primaries by an average of 26%, she began to regain her footing in Wisconsin, where the margin was only 17.6%. Here stunning 8 point victory in Ohio, and her loss by only 2 points in Texas, shows that Obama's appeal is fading fast, and that Hillary Clinton is on a roll, ready to dominate Pennsylvania and all subsequent states. Whether the Obama campaign will be able to retool its message sufficiently in time to be competitive in Pennsylvania is the big question mark, and there is word of big shake-up at the Obama campaign.

Submitted by Paul_Lukasiak on

http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com...

Analysis of the data has revealed a surprisingly large number of Democratic primary voters that would vote against the same candidate in the general that they voted for in the primary. Almost all are older white Bush voters, and they break heavily for Obama. Those that break for Clinton are mostly female, while the Obama voters are equally split on gender.

koshembos's picture
Submitted by koshembos on

Paul, if you want to mimic Tweety, be our guest. I don't know you, but I am not really clear what's the point you make. Wait for Texas and Ohio and then you either win or lose.

Way back I noticed that every journalist tends to be a prophet. It holds for politics as well as the city's sewer reporting. The pundits, ancient English for dunces, are at a terrible rush to be in the future. Potential changes such as Hillary winning the remaining big states are unacceptable to them, so they just ignore the potential.

As for polls, their track record this election cycle is miserable. Let's wait for the voters. Remember when Obama was equal in California and winning New Jersey?

Submitted by Paul_Lukasiak on

I think it may be an anomoly....

a poll taken a week earlier shows that 82% of respondents had their minds made up.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo...

the most recent poll shows only 76% of people with their minds made up.

I checked SC polls, and as the primary got closer, the "leaning/undedecided" vote got smaller... from 25% to 22% to 20% to 19%.

And the most recent poll shows Hillary with significantly fewer "mind made up" voters than the previous one. In the poll from last week, 418 out of 1000 likely voter had the "mind made up" to vote for hillary. In the most recent poll, that number has declined to 342. Basically, this poll is telling us that 19% of people who had their minds made up had their minds changed in the last week.

(And Obama's mind made up voter dropped as well, from 385 to 380 per 1000 likely voters).

Submitted by lambert on

koshembos, paul mimicking tweety is extremely unlikely. You say you don't know him, so do some research. I'm very happy to have him here.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Submitted by Paul_Lukasiak on

obviously, in the post he was referring to, I was parodying media gasbags like Tweety -- showing how the media would cover "mixed" results from next Tuesday in an alternate universe where "everthing is good news for Hillary" instead of the "everything is bad new for Hillary" universe we live in.

In "safely Republican, but battleground" states like Texas (states that the Dems will devote resources to to ensure that the GOP has to campaign there too) it doesn't matter who wins in a race where both campaigns are trying hard, as long as its fairly close. A blowout in a state like Texas would be significant -- it would signal that the loser would have a much harder time creating a credible "battleground" state there (and in similar states).

intranets's picture
Submitted by intranets on

What is of interest to know is that Ohio is a "closed Primary" state, but unlike some past primaries, it appears that very few counties will be challenging the party affiliation of voters (meaning any registered voter can request either party ballot).

The exception is Cleveland where poll workers are being told to require voters to sign the party affiliation challenges. (This really isn't that big of a deal, any voter can change party on election day by signing the oath form).

It will be interesting to see how many Republicans are willing to become registered "D" (until the next primary) just to be able to vote in the Dem primary. I think a lot of Republican voters would vote for Obama, but it appears that the Stalin like hold of the ODP and SOS will make Ohio a blow-out victory for Hillary.

bringiton's picture
Submitted by bringiton on

Cleveland in the winter is a gulag, I'll grant you, but still...Nothing could be farther from dictatorialism than the Democratic Party. To be dictatorial you have to be organized - end of argument.

intranets's picture
Submitted by intranets on

if you have a cult like mentality it is the same effect as a dictatorial hold.

bringiton's picture
Submitted by bringiton on

As I'm not seeing a cult-like phenomenon for the Democratic Party as a national whole, or even the whole of the ODP. And I don't believe there was anything about Stalin's coup that was originally or ever cultish, merely brutal - Lenin, now, there was a cult. From a psychological standpoint there is very little in common between a cult, almost always established and spread through intellectual and emotional seduction that can sometimes but not always transform into overt abuse and destruction, and a dictatorship like Stalin's that is initially founded on and survives through brutality and fear alone.

Way too much throwing around of loaded terminology and ugly names these days, and in this case all I'm saying is that I do not think the Stalin reference is apt. This is the Democratic Party you're writing about; an excess of organizational zeal is not and has never been one of the Party's problems, ref: Will Rogers. Just saying.

vastleft's picture
Submitted by vastleft on

... at how costly it is becoming to be an Obama skeptic. People start treating you like an absolute pariah. I'm not exaggerating.

I'm unaware that similar punishment accrues to Hillary skeptics, Edwards skeptics, etc.

bringiton's picture
Submitted by bringiton on

Try arguing that the vast majority of police are actually decent human beings or that tasers are a reasonable alternative to direct physical force or that not all senior Democrats are corporatist sellout swine. Yeah, I can spell pariah.

Hang tough, VL, fight the good fight and don’t let the bastards grind you down.