math

Thoughtstreaming with the Polls

Math is funny. It's a mystery to people like me, but one thing I know: when they "figure it out" they more or less, you know, figure it out. That is, while there may be 'other' ways to get to four than 2+2, it's still always true that 2+2 = 4. That's how I look at a lot of polling organizations. Did you make it to 4? Were you close? Not 'now,' but 'after,' when we can all see where they went, the trends and ideas you predicted were ascendant, and how succesful they turned out to be in truth. Haw, I love some comment I just read, "this is a reality-based community." Indeed, My Friends. So which of them are here with us in RealityLand?

In the spirit of spitting on reality, let me roll with my initial impressions as a mostly non-consumer of media product, as I reviewed these numbers. I think you old-timers call this 'stream of consciousness' blogging.

First, the non-corporate media projection sites updated counts:

Election Projection: Obama 364-174
Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 364, McCain 171, 3 tied
Fivethirtyeight: Obama 344-194 McCain
Pollster.com: Obama 313, McCain 157, Toss-up 68
Real Clear Politics: Obama 286, McCain 155, Toss-up 97