[Hillary’s speech: Since bringiton has framed the issues so nicely, let’s use this post as an open thread for Hillary’s speech, which TalkLeft and RiverDaughter are liveblogging. CSPAN here.]

It would be a grave error for anyone to underestimate Hillary Clinton.  Read more 

Polls last week confirmed the weak showing of Barak Obama in a couple of key states that will be crucial in winning November’s general election. They also showed that Hillary Clinton has maintained an Electoral College advantage over John McCain, while other polls show Clinton dominating McCain in overall voter preference.

With the flawed Democratic primary likely resulting in Obama leading Clinton in the primary race for pledged delegates but not by enough to win outright, the nomination decision will fall to a small group of leaders; Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. What should they do?  Read more 

[Welcome, InstaPutz readers.]

[Welcome also, Taylor Marsh readers, thanks to Grey.]

After Hillary Clinton’s historic 41-point victory in the West Virginia primary, two questions loom: How long will Barak Obama cling to his shattered dreams of the presidency, and how much damage will be done to the Democratic Party by his stubborn and divisive refusal to accept the obvious?

UPDATE – Below: How will Obama win an Electoral College majority? at Salon by Paul Maslin, former pollster to Howard Dean. (h/t BDBlue)

UPDATE 2 – Below: Skirting Appalachia, an Op Ed in the NYT opining on Barak Obama’s Electoral College strategic options by Charles Blow, Art Director at National Geographic -and why not? (h/t again to the sharp-eyed BDBlue)  Read more 

Now that the brouhaha over the words of Reverend Wright has been completely done away with by Barack Obama’s speech, his supporters are once again clamoring for Hillary Clinton to get out of the race. We are told the only way she can win is if she manages to have a ‘coup by superdelegates.’ Those of you who are fans of the rules will note that such a coup is wholly permissible (as long as there is no associated violence).

There are many on the blogs who deem it unseemly that the will of the people would be ignored by these superdelegates (unless, say, that superdelegate was a governor from a southwestern state whose voters didn’t vote for the bloggers’ candidate of choice ). The question is what will they be looking at when making their decisions about what is best for the Democratic Party. Undoubtedly, the superdelegates will take the will of the people into account, but that is not all. Here I will focus on something else they will consider - who has the best chance of beating McCain in the Electoral College at the end of the year.

To do this I first look at the current state of polling in head to head match-ups between McCain and the two Democrats. The following two maps are drawn based on the current match-ups. These were created using 270toWin.com’s interactive map feature. The polling data used in this analysis were also found at 270toWin.com. A complete listing of this polling data is given in a table at the end of this post. The states are colored in only if the polls show a difference between the two (Clinton vs. McCain or Obama vs. McCain) of five percentage points or greater. It is certainly possible that changes of more than 5 percentage points could occur before November, but that is what I chose to use as a point for comparison.

Clinton vs. McCain

Obama vs. McCain

As can be seen, more states have aligned themselves with a candidate in the Clinton vs. McCain contest than for Obama vs. McCain. Clinton holds a >5% lead over McCain in 16 states (and the District of Columbia) which are worth a total of 215 electoral votes, while McCain leads (>5%) Clinton in 24 states worth 212 electoral votes. This leaves 10 states and 111 electoral votes ‘up for grabs.’ For Obama the lead (>5%) is in 15 states (plus DC), worth 180 electoral votes, with McCain leading (>5%) in 21 states worth 189 electoral votes. Thus they have 14 states and 169 electoral votes ‘in-play.’  Read more 

Win if you can, lose if you must, but always cheat. - Jesse Ventura

Republicans vying for the presidency must be real wrestling fans…

In 2000, it was the disaster in Florida and a Supreme Court theft of the White House in Bush v. Gore.

In 2004, it was questionable balloting via Diebold voting machines in Ohio.

Now, in 2007, preemption is the rule: steal the 2008 presidential election by another Republican electoral stunt. There is a proposed initiative in California to divide presidential delegates’ votes in the Electoral College.  Read more