Some sanity on Iran
Thank the God(ess)(e)(s) Of Your Choice, If Any, that Yves isn't a court eunuch*, and published material like this! Gonzalo Lira:
[T]he more you think through America’s provocations and interference in Iran’s history, the more you can’t help but be impressed by Iran’s self-control. They’ve played their cards much better than either the U.S. or Israel.
Precisely because of all the foolish, pointless tauntings and provocations by the U.S. and Israel, I think it’s likely that—regardless of what they say—Iran is very busy trying to acquire nuclear weapons. Israel’s and the U.S.’s nuclear taunting guarantees that the only thing that will give Iran’s people and leadership peace of mind is a few dozen nuclear-tipped rockets. And they will in all likelihood acquire them—one way or another. Fear will drive them.
For now, Iran’s strategy of quietly but steadily fomenting insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine is the only sensible approach Iran can take. It has to keep America pinned down in those two quagmires while it develops nuclear weapons.
Because that’s Iran’s ultimate goal—obviously: From the point of view of Iran’s leadership, any other strategy would be irresponsible and foolish. The Iranian leadership want to protect their population from both the U.S. and Israel. From Iran’s point of view, only the acquisition of nukes guarantees their safety.
However, a nuclear Iran isn’t a disaster—on the contrary: My own sense is, if and when Iran actually acquires nuclear weapons, regional tension will paradoxically ease—think India/Pakistan. And Iran is a far more stable country than Pakistan, with none of the territorial ambitions or frictions.
If and when Iran acquires nukes, the U.S. will realize it can’t fuck with Iran anymore—it has to negotiate. The same conclusion will be arrived at in Tel Aviv.
The danger zone, I think, will be that uncertain period before Iran for-sure has nuclear weapons—in other words, the period we are living in now.
It is conceivable that Israel will stupidly launch a pre-emptive strike, in a misguided attempt to “protect Israel” from Iran acquiring nukes. In fact, I would argue that this is a very possible outcome. This pre-emptive strike will bring about a nuclear retaliation by Iran—they’ll simply buy a few from Russia (which would be happy to sell them, if Israel starts launching nukes helter-skelter), and that will be that for Israel. Israel is smaller, and more concentrated. In any nuclear war, Israel will lose.
Now is the danger-time. And it will be the Americans and the Israelis—not the Iranians—who will pull the trigger on the regional suicide.
Seems reasonable to me. Nemesis always follows hubris, which all empires, of both global scale (the United States) and suburban (Israel) would do well to remember -- but don't.
NOTE * Granted, a poor metaphor here, which Ian might want to re-think!
NOTE Does anybody know if Obama has sent a sternly worded letter to Israel for shooting an American citizen? I mean, I know it's, like, totally constitutional for El Presidente to shoot anybody he wants to, because he's such a totally cool and cerebral guy, whose heart really is in the right place, but does that privilege extend to other nations, too?