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Recession Watch?

Aargh, browser crash* ate my post. So herewith the headlines, because I want to go on to other posts:

Bloomberg: U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter by Most in Five Years

U.S. economy collapses in first quarter, but growing again Reuters

WaPo: The economy shrank almost 3 percent in Q1. Holy guacamole.

Politico: Shrinking economy trouble for Democrats

Globe: We’re in a recovery, so why is the economy shrinking?

Economy in First Quarter Was Worse Than Everybody Thought Times

I'm with Kevin Drum:

I just don't buy the tired excuse that the Q1 number was weather related. Something happened.

But what? Forbes in 2012:

1. The first thing you have to be aware of is that this recovery officially dates back to the end of the last recession, pegged at July 2009 by NBER (the body that officially calculates this things).

2. That makes this particular recovery, pathetic though it may be, 38 months old already.

3. There have been ten other economic recoveries following recessions since World War II prior to this one.

4. The shortest recovery period (also called an expansion) was 24 months long, from April of 1958 to April of 1960.

5. The longest expansion in the post-war period was 120 months, from March 1991 to March 2001.

6. The average economic expansion during this period has been 63 months, or roughly five years, in length.

So it's been 55 months, and 25 days since the recession ended. News to me, but whatever. So the next recession would be right on cue, except that recoveries after finance-driven crashes are more sluggish. So nobody knows anything. I don't whether it's special this time around that the stock market is completely divorced from the real economy, or that the labor force was permanently shrunken.
NOTE * Tor Bundle does not like LinkedIn one single bit. This is the second time.

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V. Arnold's picture
Submitted by V. Arnold on

Sitting here, half way around the world; I have come to the same conclusion. Ya'all are being fed well proven, fortified, 100% pure, bullshit.