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Oh to be a fly on the wall

DCblogger's picture
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By now the Democratic wing of the kleptocracy must be getting a tiny inkling of just how unpopular they are.

The White House representative at Netroots Nation, Pfeiffer, was openly booed. The blogs have turned nasty.

What politicians know, but don't talk about, is that approval ratings don't matter very much. What REALLY matters is your re-elect numbers, the question that asks, if the election were held today would you vote to reelect Senator Snort or whoever. My guess is that the Democratic numbers stink outloud. As of today their only counter arguement is that the Republicans are REALLY crazy. And the Republicans really ARE crazy, but that is really not a rallying cry.

I think Obama has been a little too clever. I think he wanted the Republican take over in the house so that he could cut social spending and pretend it was the Republican's fault. That is why last year's appropriation bills were delayed until the Republicans took over. That is why Obama did not pass an increase in the debt ceiling while he still had a Democratic majority.

But I think he has been a little too clever. Obama cannot grasp that they Republicans are prepared to destablized the whole country in order to get back into power.

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vastleft's picture
Submitted by vastleft on

"he has been a little too clever. Obama cannot grasp that they Republicans are prepared to destablized the whole country in order to get back into power."

Too clever for what? To get re-elected? If that were his prime goal, he would have laser-focused on jobs and helping people keep their homes.

And what's this about Obama failing to understand that the Republicans would "destabilize" the country? What shape was the country in before Obama became president? What has he done to "stabilize" it, other than by ratifying and expanding Bushian policies with the blessing of the so-called left? What are the scary Republicans prepared to do that Obama isn't?

Submitted by lambert on

... "smart" in this context means Obama throwing the peasants under the bus, neutering the left activists, picking up "centrist" and R votes, and so winning another term even with declining voter participation, third parties, etc. That game might work if the R leadership wanted to play, but instead they want to burn down the stadium.

vastleft's picture
Submitted by vastleft on

... consistent with satisfying the wants and needs of the voters.

That's not to say that he doesn't wish to win a second term, but he has consistently and blatantly put moneyed interests first at every turn. I wouldn't call him "too clever," I'd call him "too not giving a fuck about ordinary Americans."

nihil obstet's picture
Submitted by nihil obstet on

What evidence does he have that what's worked in the past won't continue to work? With no achievements of substance, surrogates trashing rivals, fan-pleasing lies about what he'll do (see FISA), he got to be president. Then, he kept a substantial part of his fan base for years despite delivering the opposite of what he promised.

I think that he believed he could swing into his re-election campaign touting his achievements for the low-info voter (health care reform! saved the economy!) and blaming the Republicans for not letting him be even more awesome. For the base, remember how evil and crazy the Republicans are.

He underestimated at least two things. One is the gulf between reality and PR. Low-info voters don't follow their state legislators or Congresscritters. But they know the circumstances of their own lives; they haven't felt results from the so-called health care reform and they're economically worse off. Obama seems to have thought that he could turn them around with some job speeches close to re-election time, but speeches and promises don't cut it for a guy who's been in office three years.

The other is the Republican willingness to say what's needed to get elected. And they're beginning to attack Obama for wanting cuts to the safety net. So instead of the Democrats being able to run as the 2% less evil party, they''re going to be running as the "steal from the poor for their Wall Street friends" party. The Republicans may actually move the Overton window back to the left.

Obama thought he could be a conservative Republican, counting on bat-shit crazy Republicans to scare the Democratic base into supporting him, not realizing that that strategy may be played out.

Submitted by jawbone on

and the 5% R lead is considered statistically insignificant.

2012 Voter Preferences for Obama, "Republican" Remain Close
Forty-four percent prefer the Republican; 39%, Obama
by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Forty-four percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for "the Republican Party's candidate" and 39% for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, according to Gallup's June update. The current five-percentage-point edge for the generic Republican is not a statistically significant lead, and neither side has held a meaningful lead at any point thus far in 2011.

Also, this far out, the polling is, well, essentially meaningless, especially since there is no clear frontrunner for the R's against which to poll preferences.

We won't get to know, but I wonder what the internal polling is showing for either party. Probably, throw all the bums out.

vastleft's picture
Submitted by vastleft on

The media will present the narrative that elects him/her.

Someone will be just the right kind of "presidential" "regular Joe" and the other person will be vaguely unfit.

Submitted by gob on

Very true. I repeat it with the goal of reminding myself and anyone else with a tendency to get caught up in the prevailing narratives.

Keep your eye on the rhetoric, the photos, and the interesting things that don't get said until paragraph 46 if at all, and you will see it happen right under your nose.

vastleft's picture
Submitted by vastleft on

It was so funny last election hearing people talk about how McCain had suddenly changed, how he was no longer the wonderful war-hero BBQ daddy maverick they'd loved, when he was the same asshole he'd always been, but no longer getting pumped up by the press.

I have to admit, I used to be a sucker for (many) prevailing narratives like everyone else.

jjmtacoma's picture
Submitted by jjmtacoma on

and how long she will actually last at Kos.

It seems like it would be a hard place to work if you cared about the war on women since sooner or later easy choices will have to be made.

Valhalla's picture
Submitted by Valhalla on

Well, I guess we weren't really speaking of the underbussen, at least not the involuntary ones since NN is composed of the the enthusiastic lemmings who couldn't wait to throw themselves there, but evidently Plouffe has joined the Class of '11!

White House strategist David Plouffe says all President Barack Obama’s messages should be directed to a middle-aged, white woman in Ohio.

Good thing for Obama he took all that care to court the Clinton-voters back to the Dem fold after the '08 primaries.

Oh wait...

via The Crawdad Hole

The rest of the Bloomberg article isn't worth reading, just all the usual prop-up-President-Fuck-You stuff, although they did cop to his re-election strategy:

It’s clear what the Obama campaign will and won’t be about. The record will be deemphasized. The priorities will be to paint the opposition as out of the mainstream extremists who are unequipped to handle America’s challenges

Submitted by Hugh on

It is irrelevant what Obama thinks or what his strategy is. He is a kleptocrat. As long as the Oval Office and Capitol Hill are held by Democrats and Republicans, our government will be in the hands of the kleptocrats. Unless a real progressive can be found to challenge Obama from the left, the 2012 Presidential election will be irrelevant.

My reading of NN sessions indicated that there was a effort to throw Obama under the bus and stoke up the fiction of "progressive" Democrats to support.

Back in late 2008/early 2009, I predicted a crash in 2011. Such predictions are tricky but the whole setup for another crash is in place now. If anything there are more and larger effectors for a crash this time around than last, both domestically and internationally. A new crash could radically alter not just the economic landscape but the political one as well. So even though I predicted this a couple of years ago, this is a wildcard that we should keep in mind as well.