In the wake of Hillary Clinton's speech last night, there is a lot of talk about how not nominating Clinton for VP is "Obama's biggest mistake". That is simply not the case. Obama should not have "needed" Clinton as VP in the first place, and the fact that he does is a symptom of his actual 'biggest mistakes."
Obama's biggest mistakes, in order, were:
1) Not participating in further debates, and ignoring states like West Virginia and Kentucky. That wasn't just a missed opportunity to introduce himself to more voters, it was a signal to voters that they didn't matter to him. It also provided evidence to those doubtful of Obama that he lacks the personal characteristics that a President needs to govern in the face of pressure and adversity.
2) Playing the race card against Clinton. Obama would have gotten the vast majority of AA votes anyway, based on the "historical" nature of his candidacy. But playing the race card not only alienated people already supporting Clinton, it probably increased her support. It also made it nearly impossible to make an effective case against the inevitable GOP dog-whistle politics that will play a major role in the GE.
3) Not taking personal responsibility for unifying the party. Instead, he acted as if it was Hillary's job to get her supporters to fall in line, while he concentrated on people like evangelicals. It's a truism that endorsements are virtually meaningless anymore, and that candidates themselves need to appeal to voters -- and it's been that way for quite some time. Obama seems to have forgotten that. Additionally, whether by intent or incompentence, Team Obama made a series of moves (Solis-Doyle, allowing "roll call vote" and "Clintons' roles" at the convention to become controversial) that were perceived as disrespectful by those not convinced by "party unity" arguments.
4) Failure to define himself and flip-flopping. It's hard enough for any candidate to define themselves in the face of opposition efforts to define them, and for someone with Obama's lack of a record its especially difficult. The "all things to all people" schtick worked in the primaries only because Clinton chose not to make an effort to define him until it was too late. Obama stands for nothing in particular -- there is nothing for people to grab that acts an an anchor to define his character. And his post-primary flip-flops and equivocations have exacerbated this problem, allowing the GOP to define his solely in terms of his "character."
Given the antipathy toward the GOP this year, no Democrat should "need" the kind of help "that only Hillary Clinton" can bring to the ticket. When the role of the VP nominee becomes "saving the campaign from the candidate himself," the question of "the right" VP candidate becomes irrelevant.
Nor is there any evidence that Clinton would be able to accomplish what would be demanded of her. A big part of Obama's current problems has to do with the media's obsession with the Clintons, and because there are profound differences in how Team Obama and Team Clinton think the campaign should be run, and strong resentment of the other "side" within each camp, the media will focus the "Clinton vs. Obama" dynamic, leaving an open field for McCain's attacks.
And ultimately, while Clinton might be able to push Obama over the top in November, the real question comes down to what happens next? The election season has shown us that Obama is not a consummate politician -- rather, he's like a highly specialized plant that thrives in a specific environment, but withers and dies under less than ideal conditions. While Democrats are rightfully worried about Obama's chances in November, the reasons they need to be worried should also have them concerned about an Obama Presidency.
- Paul_Lukasiak's blog
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I'm still persuadable on policy
(health care). The policies will endure.
But I'm not persuadable on oratory (or, more precisely, the oratory needs to include real, verifiable, policy commitments. For example, the mere word "universal" isn't enough.)
And what you said:
And, as I keep saying, that means that Clinton has power over Obama, rather than the reverse. Hopefully, she uses that power for good ;-)
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
You would trust his promises after FISA?
He was for NAFTA before he was against it before he was for it.
Uh-uh, na ga happen.
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“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
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“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
I know all that
I don't trust him any farther than I could throw a piano. My standards for "real, verifiable" are pretty high. A prime time commitment, for example, would make future betrayal a lot less easy. Obviously, as I said that the time, the idea that he'd be working something out with Elizabeth Edwards was a mere ploy (one can only wonder if he knew the Edwards revelation to come), so nothing on that order would make the grade.
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
You should put playing the race card at #1
That, more than anything, will be what kills his candidacy.
Then add at #2 - Misogyny and sexism. Whether you hold him responsible personally, or by respondeat superior, all the hatin' on women (half the country) during the campaign is what created PUMA
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“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
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“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
+100
Unless you want to write off older women (apparently, younger women had no problem with it), the sexism and misogyny was a huge mistake.
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
I'm under 30
And I have a BIG problem with it. Don't lump us all in with the funfeminists.
I'm wise enough to know, that even though I'm deemed "still fuckable" by the fauxgressives, I'm not really respected, unlike some others who have forgiven the misogyny of the primaries.
Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!
He who will not reason is a bigot; he who cannot is a fool; and he who dares not is a slave.
- Sir William Drummond
I believe that's what the polls say
I should have said that. Sorry!!
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi
Obama is swimming against the tidal wave
He should end up still winning, because this year's anti-Republican wave is so big, but he's doing everything he can to minimize the margin of victory.
I would also add to your list: failing to once reach out to the masses of folks seeking populist economic solutions to their very real problems. Yes, abstract economic theory says that efficient market-based solutions work best, but economic theory has been used for far too long to justify anti-labor, pro-capital policies that have decimated the working class in this country. If Obama starts railing against Big Business, the culture of greed, and the outsourcing of American jobs in the name of short-term profits, he will win a lot of the Hillary supporters out there. But he won't do that, because he is an elitist, embracing elitist economic policies, and too too comfortable with the white-gloved cocktail hour set (Clive Crook, the entire Washington Post editorial board, and most of Wall Street come to mind), which he certainly doesn't want to offend with dirty "class warfare".
He had pollsters writing his policies
Designed for maximum appeal, minimum offense, yet weasel-worded so as to be "flexible" (i.e. meaningless)
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“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
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“I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat.” - Will Rogers
ding ding ding! redsox is the winner!
that's one damn fine summation, friend. economic populism would guarantee a tremendous dem sweep this fall, but of course obama and his UChicago econ team would never, ever allow that sort of talk. i weep to think of all the new voters such a campaign could bring in, knowing that such will not happen, given the mushy, nonspecific talk coming from the obama camp.
people are hurting a great deal more than the consultant class Villagers understand. i guess we'll just have to see for how long they can insulate themselves from that reality.
Unionization
A word Hillary put in her speech. You won't see anyone else mention that word all week.
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Around these parts we call cucumber slices circle bites
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I'm not such a bad guy once you get to know me.
Did You Hear The Crowd?
When she let unionization, gay rights, and universal health care roll off her tongue? The crowd had been waiting for that since she dropped out of the race. It wasn't just her supporters who gave those things standing O's, either, it was the entire damned room.
These are the things we've been waiting for, and why the candidate no longer running has to be the one to finally reintroduce them back into the narrative of the race is ridiculous. Obama should be talking about these things, and more, every single day of the campaign.
The country is crying out for this kind of nourishment, and all he can seem to do is toss us crumbs, if even that. He's starving his base, and they are starting to atrophy. Hope & Change are incredibly light treats. They aren't sustenance, and if he hopes to have this body politic strong and ready to deliver for him on November 4th, he better start providing us with some food quickly.
This man is foolishly watering the leaves, when he should be watering the roots.
But, we've always been at war with Eastasia...
No, it's not foolishness
That's the incompetence dodge. It's the plan. The base feels like it's being written off because it is being written off. And half the threads we've had on this blog explain concrete policy steps Obama could be taking to reverse that perception, and they aren't taken, and that's exactly because they're concrete policy steps.
[ ] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi