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ObamaCare Clusterfuck: Spinning the Medicaid numbers

WaPo:

It’s one of the most impressive statistics about the new health care law. The Obama administration says more than 8.9 million people have been, quote “determined eligible” for Medicaid from Oct. 1 through the end of January.

But a new study Monday from Avalere Health estimates the actual number of new sign-ups could be much lower, between 2.4 million and 3.5 million.

The administration’s statistic also includes many people renewing existing coverage.

Is there any number, any number at all, that these people haven't jiggered and gamed?

Also, being generous, 3.5 million / 8.9 million is 39%. That's better than the 27% conversion rate on the Exchanges. But it's still pretty bad.

True, the argument could be made that Medicaid's superior conversion rate shows people prefer gummint-run health care programs, given a choice, but 39%? Why so low? Could it be that the 61% are the "vulnerable and disengaged," to whom the HHS will not market?

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