New Lows in Hacktackularity from the WaPo
Seriously. This is an outstanding example of why the WaPo is worthy of lining your birdcage and wrapping your fish. Get ready for this: Anti War crowd guilty of 'Hindsight Bias.'
Antiwar liberals last week got to savor the four most satisfying words in the English language: "I told you so."
This was after a declassified National Intelligence Estimate asserted that the war in Iraq was creating more terrorists than it was eliminating. For millions of people who opposed President Bush's mission in Iraq from the start, this was proof positive that they had been right all along. Yes, they told themselves, we saw this disaster coming.
An intelligence estimate that said the Iraq war was creating more terrorists than it was eliminating was proof to some doubters that they knew all along the war would be a disaster. But psychologists say they are guilty of hindsight bias.
Only . . . that isn't quite true.
One of the most systematic errors in human perception is what psychologists call hindsight bias -- the feeling, after an event happens, that we knew all along it was going to happen.
"Liberals' assertion that they 'knew all along' that the war in Iraq would go badly are guilty of the hindsight bias," agreed Hal Arkes, a psychologist at Ohio State University, who has studied the hindsight bias and how to overcome it. "This is not to say that they didn't always think that the war was a bad idea."
He added: "It is to say that after it was apparent that the war was going badly, they assert that they would have assigned a higher probability to that outcome than they really would have assigned beforehand."
This works well with the "stabbed in the back" motif that is being used on us now. When liberals are right, it's because we're biased. Either with delusions of intelligence that are all in our heads, or because of the disloyalty in our hearts and desire to see our domestic enemies fail.
Jesus I hate the SCLM.