After the health care meeting, I came upon a group of three middle-aged women. One was holding some Obama literature and saying, “Actually, I’m having a lot of trouble getting over this.” I stopped and listened and joined in. All were Hillarians, still quite sore from the primary fight. I said something about the “orgy of hate.” One of them said yes, and it wasn’t just from the Obama people. She described how the Jim Lehrer show came to the local public TV station to do a piece on the primary. And (1) everyone in the discussion was male, and (2) every time the Hillary guy (a local county official) started to talk, the others interrupted him and talked over him and generally kept him from making his point. Six weeks later, she’s still furious.
More field notes: primary aftermath
Submitted by gob on Thu, 2008-06-12 13:04.
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Yup, that sounds just about right. I'm hoping one of the
Corrent wunderkind will demonstrate how HRC can take the nomination in August (if at all). I’m all for it, and I certainly could spitball this but I just don’t have the analytical chops for a cohesive presentation. One of the major factors would be - what would it take to dump Obama and pick up Clinton? I fear it won’t be enough if one day the DNC et al waking up and realize His polling is going south. I believe they’ve bought into this nominee win or lose and that keeps leading me back to the 10 million dollar (adjusted for inflation) question - why? What do they get out of him losing?
I wish I understood this better.
I love this job!
Actually, it's not
I fear it won’t be enough if one day the DNC et al waking up and realize His polling is going south.
His polling has been getting steadily better, as of today, like 2 in 3 favorite for beating McCain.
Good news, but we've also seen it before
November is what, six months away?
And a week is a long time in politics.
[x] Very tepidly voting for Obama [ ] ?????. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.
why does Lehrer have a job?
I think Obama will win by a landslide
doesn’t alter the fact that Lehrer is a disgrace and has been for years
Sigh, I also met a Hillary bitter-ender,
a cute, obsessed old guy who had custom Hillary “campaign buttons” with himself as the VP candidate. He went on and on about how she hadn’t released her delegates yet. It may have done more than anything else to make me feel the hopelessness of any such idea.
I like Jim Lehra (sic)
He is far better than any existing counterpart on any news channel. Same for the Newshour as a program.
And as far as polls, the only ones that matter are the state polls as they relate to the electoral vote.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
The second one is more refined and has lots of different “looks”.
At RCP most polls including Rasmussen, Gallup, etc. have BO
and JM within the margin of error give or take a point. That’s not exactly something to feel good about especially when this was supposed to be BO’s post Hillary dump bump. Wow, if you judge His campaign just be the “metrics” (delegates, popular vote, caucus v primary) and not by the “narrative”, it’s very unimpressive. It’s like he’s doing the bare minimum in order to win.
I love this job!
State-by-state, of course
The election is scored by electoral vote. I’m usually looking at http://hominidviews.com (which has its own peculiar analytic problem but does do a nice job of combining the state polling data)
I don’t think he’ll win but it’s not honest to overlook the fact that he’s doing well in the polls now and has been improving for a while.
I saw somewhere that Gallup
had to shorten its sampling period to only a couple of days in order to demonstrate any real “bump” for Obama. I wonder how much longer entities like the DNC, Gallup, etc will re-write the rules to make sure Obama looks good.
Kerry v Bush
I think its useful to look at Kerry’s numbers after he secured the nom til now. Keep in mind Kerry was a freakin war hero with almost no real baggage. That Obama is struggling to get to 50% doesn’t give me much confidence. Obama didn’t exactly run a stellar campaign—his gaffes, contradictions (Power saying one thing overseas, Obama saying another on Iraq) and “friends” were enough to kill most campaigns. We’ll see whether or not he benefits from fawning coverage, but one thing is pretty clear, as Paul L documented: growing numbers of actual voters rejected Obama in the last three months of the primary. The more they knew, the less they liked.
Kerry came off a winning streak
Kerry won all the last competitive primaries. Obama lost several.
For all that I am predicting a 1932 style landslide. Polls don’t tell you everything. Nobody is showing up for McCain events. He is having trouble raising money. Some Republican congressmen have refused to endorse him. All signs of an impending meltdown.
DNC's moving to Chicago--
don’t look to them for help or even objective anything…
Obama moves DNC operations to Chicago