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Kremlinology: Automatic Delegate Edition

BDBlue's picture

There has been quite a bit of movement among automatic delegates in the last two days. Yesterday, Hillary Clinton picked up Ike Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and Governor Easley of North Carolina. Obama picked up Richard Machacek of Iowa and Ben Chandler of Kentucky. Then this morning, Clinton announced the head of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, Obama announced Hill of Indiana and another Iowa representative (Braley). Then, Clinton announced a PR delegate (Chelsea picked up Cabanas on her visit to there). That was followed by Obama announcing Lois Capps of California endorsing him. (You can get the rundown from Marc Ambinder's blog.)

What's interesting to me is that of the five automatic delegates Obama has announced in the last two days, two are from Iowa and one from California. I find it hard to believe that they've picked this week to suddenly get Obama-mania. Hill and Chandler make more sense since they are from upcoming primaries.

Other than Skelton, Hillary's have all come from states/territories that either just had or are about to have primaries.

Now, maybe I'm reading too much into it, but I suspect that the California and Iowa delegates have been in the Obama camp for some time and he was waiting to use them. That's been a pretty consistent part of the Obama campaign, timing automatic delegate rollouts. But Clinton's pick up of four in two days has forced Obama to roll them out now to keep it from looking like automatic delegates have started to move to Clinton. If Ambinder's blog is to be believed Obama announced Capp shortly after the PR pick-up.

Of course, it could be that these delegates are moving to Obama now because they want to shore up the person they think will be the nominee or because they have decided in the last few days that they prefer him, but that's not nearly as much fun as trying to read more into it (whether it's there or not).

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gqmartinez's picture
Submitted by gqmartinez on

I recall Obama giving tons of money to super Ds that have endorsed him. Do they realize that Obama's money will most likely dry up once he's the nominee? Or do we all still think college kids are donating tens of millions of dollars to his campaign?

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

new SD endorsements every few days, especially after bad news.

I find it hard to believe that bad news for Obama suddenly induces anyone to decide to endorse him.

------------------------------------------------
Real ponies don't oink - Patrick McManus

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

Now would be a natural time for him to decide or at least to announce his support since Indiana is next week and he represents Bloomington. I suspect it's a suck up to all those college kids.

But the two Iowa representatives and the California one? I don't buy they suddenly found Jesus Obama this week.

Submitted by lambert on

So this news is, in fact, a sign of erosion.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

He reps Southern IN, a lot further south, where UI Southeast is, and a very conservative part of the state. My BFF lives in Bedford, south of IU and she has a different rep. This is going to bite him in the ass. He's going to have to face Mike Sodrel again in Nov, and he'll wring that for all its worth.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

Last time I trust a blog commenter. Heh.

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

Not so much for Hill and Chandler, at least not for the erosion part since this is when you'd be rolling out SDs for upcoming primaries. But the other three are to help counter the idea that SDs are beginning to move to Clinton. Because she's picked up at least four in the last 24 hours and Obama is trying to keep up.

If she can keep rolling them out, we'll see if he runs out.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

Checked this out.

Last time I trust my BFF ;D

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

Submitted by Paul_Lukasiak on

Right before Texas and Ohio, there were reports that Obama had 50 SD's "in his pocket". My guess is that a whole lot of them fell out of his pocket after OH and TX -- and the people he's rolling out now are the stragglers who didn't have sense to abandon the sinking ship.

I mean, ya gotta think that Baron Hill is simply crazy -- or owes someone bigtime, because there is no way that someone from a district like his would be endorsing Obama at this point.

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

If Obama had the automatic delegates, this thing would be over. As it is, he's being forced to go to his reserves. Meanwhile, Clinton picks up Ike Skelton and the Pennsylvania head of the AFL-CIO.

jeqal's picture
Submitted by jeqal on

Why don't we start every primary in Puerto Rico and Guam?

Would certainly set the Dems apart from the Republicans. Would love to see how many bow out after G and PR vote the candidates they don't want off the island.

“Democrats have a habit of falling in love with candidates on the first date.”

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

Via MYDD Obama announced today four new automatic delegates, three of them from Illinois, including Richard Daley. Nothing new here, it's Illinois is completing its delegate slate. So while they're described as new, they are to be expected (see http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/05/...). He also picked up one former Clinton delegate from Indiana (a formed DNC chair, Andrew) who switched because he was impressed with Obama's handling of Wright and because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain." http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/1/34713...

Meanwhile, Clinton has picked up the head of the Connecticut AFL-CIO. Via Marc Ambinder, see http://blogs.courant.com/capitol_watch/2... . New York is expected to round out its delegate slate soon and she'll probably pick up delegates there just as Obama did in Illinois.

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

So it turns out that one of Obama's new super delegates yesterday, was his press secretary's mother-in-law. Bill Burton is married to Lois Capps' daughter. Yeah, I'm sure she's just now making up her mind on who to support.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

He has to make it look like he's not bleeding support. And of course the media dutifully pushes the storyline he needs to stay relevant.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!