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Kos damps down premature triumphalism

C'mon guys, it's still August:

[KOS] for the record, I still don't think we'll win back either chamber. I've seen the GOP close the deal too many times before for me to get complacent and cocky. Nah. I think we'll win 7-14 seats in the House, 3-5 in the Senate.

Yeah, I know such pessimism is tough when the numbers, data, and current events give so much cause for optimism, but I was burned two cycles in a row. I'm not getting my hopes up.

And in August, there aren't any surprises. Nor in September. Unlike October:

Barring an unexpected and big event, [or, shall we say, an unexpected expected event] Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November and conceivably the Senate, too. ...

More telling is that the smartest Republican political minds agree. ``The issue matrix and political dynamics are not good for us,'' says Representative Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican. ``Only some big national or international event before the election can change that.''

At a private gathering sponsored by Democratic House Leader Pelosi for some of the party's biggest givers in California early this month, there was a palpable sense that Karl Rove and the White House will engineer some ``October surprise.''

And Republicans, with a better get-out-the-vote system, generally tend to close better in American elections. But October surprises usually are the invention of summer nervous nellies; the public mood, not organization, will shape this year's elections.


Got to study up on those low-information voters. The ones who are Googling Corrente right now for "Bush farts" are the ones that need to be innoculated against the onrushing Republican mindfuck.

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