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Is This The "New" Math?

myiq2xu's picture

From WKJM:

Status Quo Ante
Lots of spin coming from both campaigns tonight. I'd say the real story is that this leaves us basically where we were. It was a decisive win for Hillary but that was the expectation. Going into tonight I think the dividing line was about 8 points. Closer than that and the story would have been that Obama didn't win but closed the margin (which is how it looked early in the evening). A bigger margin than that and the story would be that Hillary got her big victory. So the 10 point spread is close to the dividing line but on Hillary's side of it. There's a lot of crowing from Hillary's campaign tonight about a shift in momentum and doubts about Obama. Tomorrow there will be a lot of chatter from Obama's campaign that none of that really matters because of the reality of the delegate numbers which won't change much.

Like I said, I think that means we're basically right where we were.

(emphasis added)

This is just fuck-stick stupid. Does WKJM even read the crap he (or she) writes?

10 = 8 X 125%

That's not "close to the dividing line."

I knew I shouldn't go there, but I wanted to see how the OFB were taking it. Denial isn't a river in Egypt.

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Submitted by [Please enter a... (not verified) on

"fuck-stick stupid" sounds about right to me.

myiq2xu, at this point a front-runner should be sweeping primaries like Pennsylvania with the loser getting perhaps a few pity-votes & and Anybody-but-Winner votes.

Not only is that not happening this year -- this year, Obama's losing critical states in landslides.

Superdelegates (even Howard Dean) aren't going to be happy with the Obama Campaign today. Did the BO campaign forget anything in PA? I don't think so -- I think they did everything they could to hold that vote at a 5% loss. And they couldn't do even that.

If "all the kings horses and all the kings men couldn't put Humpty together again" who can put Obama together today?

corinne's picture
Submitted by corinne on

Superdelegates (even Howard Dean) aren’t going to be happy with the Obama Campaign today.

Who said Howard Dean had to be happy with the Obama campaign? More tin foil mad hattery....

ggggchapelhill's picture
Submitted by ggggchapelhill on

David Price, is on MSNBC. Scarborough asked how Price can claim Obama did better than expected when he outspent her 3 to 1 and still lost by 10 pts. Price's answer was well, priceless: He BARELY lost by 10 pts. both joe and andrea freaking mitchell couldn't help but to drown him out with their laughter. She said it was "the spin of the day". New math is fun.

Submitted by [Please enter a... (not verified) on

At least that's what he keeps saying. And it's not, is it?

If Obama had landed a knock-out-blow last night -- by all accounts keeping his loss to 5 points -- Hillary's campaign would have been all but over today. Presumably making Dean happy ....

What was so tin-foil-hat about that?

bringiton's picture
Submitted by bringiton on

Dean has never said he wants to stop the primary process. Dean has never said he wants to force any superdelegate to do anything. Dean has never been anything but neutral and faithful to the rules of the Party. Dean has no dog in this fight except to win in November, and he believes that to win the Dems need to settle on a candidate by July 1. So do I. A convention battle will do nothing but harm.

Howard Dean is a good man doing a tough job as well as it can be done. I like Howard. I admire Howard. I am grateful for Howard. I think everyone should be really, really nice to Howard and hope he stays on the job for another term. If he leaves, the DNC chair will likely be either Harold Ford Jr. (Clinton wing favorite) or Donna Brazile (Obama wing favorite). Either one will be a disaster.

Be nice to Howard, please.

willyjsimmons's picture
Submitted by willyjsimmons on

If he leaves, the DNC chair will likely be either Harold Ford Jr. (Clinton wing favorite) or Donna Brazile (Obama wing favorite). Either one will be a disaster.

I'm leaving the party.

I'm gone gone gone.

**I doubt either would get the job, but dayum the thought of it scares the shit outta me for real

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

No way I give a dime to Harold Ford, Jr., or Donna Brazile. I'm not happy with Dean, but that doesn't mean there aren't worse - much worse - choices.

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

to take over the DNC?

He's not running for anything right now, he's popular, and he's not in either camp.

"McGovern - Mondale - Dukakis - Obama

The few, the lame, the losers

bringiton's picture
Submitted by bringiton on

He can't go from the DNC to SCOTUS. I want Johnny to be AG for a couple of years, straighten out the DOJ. First opening he goes on the Supreme Court and serves for 40 years.

Find somebody else for DNC. Don't mess with my plans.

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

The DNC needs immediate rescue - next January Hillary can appoint him AG.

"McGovern - Mondale - Dukakis - Obama

The few, the lame, the losers

bringiton's picture
Submitted by bringiton on

Not until after the election, and even then probably not until end of January or so. Hopefully, he'll stay on for another cycle; it could get really bad if either Ford or Brazile take over.

Howard's a good guy. The problems with the DNC are almost entirely structural, rules that were settled on by the 2004 Party conference and approved by the delegates under the direction of then DNC Chair Terry McAuliff - with reasonably good intent. Dean can't just break those rules; he won't try anyway, he's not that kind of person.

What he has done is reconstitute the Standing Committees, and thereby marginalized Brazile along with many of her supporters. He'll broker a deal between DFL and DMI with the new Rules Committee that will seat all of the supers and some portion of the pledged - all of them if DFL and DMI will say sorry and promise to behave in future, 50% if not.

Replacing Dean now would not solve anything, and probably make it all worse; worse as in a bigger mess than it already is. Howard Dean didn't have a role in creating this contremps; DFL and DMI and the voters who put them in power along with Donna Brazile and the old Rules and Bylaws Committee did it. Dean had no power and no influence over any of them.

This DFL DMI primary thing is a stinky mess. I don't want Edwards anywhere near it; keep him sqeaky clean for SCOTUS.

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

I understood them waiting until after Pennsylvania, Obama had a chance to win the nomination by knocking Hillary off and they didn't want to do anything to upset that. But barring some unforeseen circumstance, I don't see this thing ending before June and at a certain point, as an old boss of mine used to say, not making a decision is making a decision.

bringiton's picture
Submitted by bringiton on

Isn't politics grand?

I hope it all goes to June, unless Obama has a complete meltdown earlier. (He may. I thought he looked like hell at the Indiana meeting last night, and sounded worse. People make mistakes when they get tired.)

The hangup with the DFL DMI problem at this point, I'm pretty certain, is about who takes the blame or better still how to do it in a way that doesn't make anyone look bad. Not easy, but doable.

There’s no rush to get it settled, the differences in delegate count won’t matter and everyone knows what they are. What does matter is how the remaining primaries turn out. If Hillary takes Indiana, KY and WVa then Obama is in big trouble. If she takes those three and OR, he’s done – and the Dem leadership will stick a fork in him. If she loses Indiana things get dicey for her, and if in addition her margins aren’t 10%+ in KY and WVa then she’ll have to drop out. If it muddles along in between, as it might, then people in Guam and Puerto Rico get to feel like they’re participating which is nice for a change and we’ll be into June.

If the primary process plays out through June 3 without one or the other collapsing, Dean and Pelosi and Reid will sit down with their subordinate delegates and make a decision about who to back; I believe they have already agreed to do so. It will be a big enough statement that the rest of the superdelegates will go along and that will be that. As far as I can read them, those three have not yet made a decision and they probably won’t until June.

Once that's done and the nominee is selected, the DFL DMI business can be settled. Easier then than now because the apportionment of delegates won't be an issue; icing on the cake is all they will be. After all the fussing it can be pictured as no harm no foul and everybody gets to go to the Party.

PS: Lambert, sheesh what? As with Pompeia, the appearance of things does matter.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

Well, right now she is leading him by 60 pts. That's a lot of voters at $10.50 per to buy. And I don't think he will try to contest her here, or in WV. He'll throw it all into NC, IN, and OR, hoping that 2/3 will save him.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!