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Fresh Pennsylvania primary open thread

A drunk lawyer spilled beer on the old one.

Our story resumes with Tweety showing angst...

Via alert reader amberglow, the official returns.

UPDATE And check out TalkLeft's cool liveblogging technology.

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myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

for Hillary supporters.

The OFB, not so much.

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

Submitted by lambert on

... tweety.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

I'm a resident of Big Smoggy, and this state is not a solid blue state.

Except for a brief period, we have had a GOP governor since 1982. DiFi is sometimes called a DINO, and the GOP is a potent and organized group.

The big difference in recent elections has been the Hispanic vote, which thanks to Pete Wilson has been reliably Democratic for well over a decade.

But the Hispanic vote went to Hillary in the primary, and if it breaks for McCain over Obama, that's a big chunk of electoral votes to lose.

No Democrat wins in November without California. Period.

Hispanic voters are fairly conservative on many issues. Of course little lord k0s and the OFB will blame racism.

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

4/17/08 CA: Stronger for Clinton who beats McCain by 13 points--53 to 40 with 7% undecided. Piece of cake.

Obama wins by 50 over McCain's 43 with 8% undecided. That undecided percent is within striking distance. Uh-oh.

gqmartinez's picture
Submitted by gqmartinez on

just heard via a reliable source that rural voters need some more prodding. call.

Submitted by lambert on

Here. But turnout can always be heavier....

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

amberglow's picture
Submitted by amberglow on

and it's suppertime. (and some of them probably have to drive a long way to go vote, i'm betting)

/lazy and not loving Clinton enough to do anything except type.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

enough over the next month, KY primary on May 21. I will be volunteering here, so I'll wait until then. last poll had Clinton up by 60 pts, but Obama is already running ads.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

would indeed help McCain. I'm very worried about CA with Obama as nominee. There's the Latino vote to consider and LGBTs pissed off at Barry.

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

If that exit poll showing Clinton got 55% of the white male vote is right, she's going to have a huge night. Last SUSA poll that had that many white men voting for her gave her an 18-point lead overall.

And now I'm sorry I figured that out because I would otherwise be thrilled with anything over 10. I know that exit polls are meaningless until weighted, but now I've gone and gotten myself all excited. Because anything over 10 is excellent (and any win is good), if she tops 15%, Obama's in very big trouble it seems to me.

California will go Obama, but he'll have to put some resources here, especially if McCain makes a push (which Republican strategists are claiming he will do if Obama's the nominee, they think Clinton has too many contacts with the state to make it worth the effort).

amberglow's picture
Submitted by amberglow on

Hispanics won't go Obama--they don't know him from Adam, and i'm one of those pissed GLBTers (but in NY)--most of us are Hillary, i think, too. And i hear Asians too, out there.

and Hispanics are the biggest future giant growing voting bloc--we must get them, no matter what.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

We won't make a big difference, but if she can take 75%, that's 15 delegates more into Obama's lead, and will show who has the momentum, which is what this is going to be decided on.

Even my boss, who doesn't really follow politics(Clinton supporter) said that Obama looks tired of campaigning, and Clinton who has been dealing with this shit for 16 years, still has a bright smile on her face. She doesn't think Obama can hang until November. If she sees it, I'm sure the SDs are too.

Plus, this is a state where she could expand the map. Though are 2 Senators are Republican, the state is Democratic at the local level. We went for Bill, and being a woman won't hurt her too much, we have had a female governor, in the 80's!

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

amberglow's picture
Submitted by amberglow on

i don't think so.

and places like NJ and PA are put in play too, if it's McCain/Obama.

I'm sticking w/ my prediction of more than 12%.

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

Those numbers tell a tale. Wrote this at my place:

In big blue Massachusetts, a primary state that Hillary won, Clinton beats John McCain easily, 56% to 41% with only 3% undecided. But Obama barely beats McCain by 2 points--in Massachusetts!--with 7% undecided voters predominantly women. Democrats solidly support Clinton, 86% of them, with a 21-point advantage over Obama at 65%. In an Obama vs. McCain match, 28% of Democrats switch to McCain. Hillary engenders more loyalty: only 12% of Democrats defect. Massachusetts is a gay and lesbian stronghold and maybe part of the Obama-McCain undecided group. What if they won't vote for the guy--McCain or Obama--with a sweet spot for homophobes? Twirl on that.

Seriously, I am very worried about an Obama nom. Heck, I live in a solid red southern state. No way it will matter if Clinton or Obama wins the nom where I live or how I vote. Dems are way outnumbered. But crikey. I am very worried that McCain will beat Obama.

amberglow's picture
Submitted by amberglow on

it's rustbelt and west/southwest we'll lose, definitely, tho.

trust me on those 2 at least--McCain is no Reagan, and most votes in both states are centered around NYC and Boston and suburbs.

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

Hmmm, I've been predicting that if Obama didn't finish Clinton off soon some of the Clinton haters in the media would turn on him because he couldn't do the ONE thing they ask of him - beat the bitch. And that eventually they'll decide he's not up to the task and that it will take Real Man John McCain to do it.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

And that means expending resources, that we won't have. And that will hurt downticket races.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

I hope so, Amberglow, re: MA. I really do. NY doesn't worry me. I'm also a pissed off LGBT.

And you are on the money about the future Latino voting bloc, Amberglow. Spot on.

amberglow's picture
Submitted by amberglow on

they've been encouraging him to fight all along, and it kills them that she's so much tougher and so much more a fighter than their guy.

Aeryl, i dunno--the NY GOP is basically dead, and MA is very very very blue.

amberglow's picture
Submitted by amberglow on

he can't get--

blue-collar whites
older whites
hispanics
LGBT
under 50k whites
no college whites
white Christians
Catholics

who else?

(us LGBT have nowhere else to go--the other groups can go elsewhere, i think)

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

I agree with you on NJ, PA, OH, MI, AZ, NV, CA... and FL is bye-bye.

What do you think FL's chances are if Hillary were the nom? And MO, AR?

amberglow's picture
Submitted by amberglow on

no problem at all. And the GOP there is very Evangelical and won't be excited about McCain unless he picks Huckabee, i think--they're very Joe Scarborough/panhandle.

I have no clue about MO, but she should take Arkansas with Bill's help--and maybe TN too.

she takes NJ, PA, OH, WI, IL, MN, CA, NV, etc, easy too, i think.

Submitted by lambert on

48 states minus women...

48 states minus blue collar...

48 states minus Hispanic...

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

I've been suspicious of some of the crossover Republican voters. Wonder if the GOP will work on wooing them back. And second, how many crossed over to beat Hillary? Questions I ponder.

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

Boston Globe says: "Local Democratic operatives expressed surprise when they heard where Hillary Clinton was hosting her Philadelphia election-night party: the Park Hyatt at the Bellevue, a grand old building on Broad Street that Democrats usually avoid because it is a non-union hotel."

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

and it's Arlen Specter's haunt. Bleh.

Submitted by lambert on

Bellevue-StratfordI do know that one of the other hotels in town is actually being picketed -- there's a giant inflatable rat in front of it -- so it's hard to believe that the Hillary campaign didn't clear this with someone Union...

NOTE Also, Spector or not, the Bellevue is a grand old Philadelphia institution, one of the masonry buildings for which we are so justly famous, from back in the day when Philly was America's second biggest city, instead of merely, oh, the best...

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

Is it the Warwick? A Radisson unionized hotel? That's the usual Dem party place for Gov. Rendell.

FrenchDoc's picture
Submitted by FrenchDoc on

says it's too close to call.

Submitted by lambert on

While I go take a break. Crossed fingers.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

voting machine irregularities. Maybe a long night.

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

to Hillary for us, Lambert. Have fun.

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

The media's gonna milk this as long as they can tonight. Sticky eyeballs.

amberglow's picture
Submitted by amberglow on

they're talking nonsense--they know she won, but are talking about how she leaves the race--sick.

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

because they returned the favor.

They want people to watch for a while I guess.

I changed it to CMT - 100 Greatest Country Music Videos.

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

He's not even tough enough for President of the He-Man Woman Haters Club.

No surprise, they're all like that. We saw how tough KO was face to face with Hillary.

Well, face to video, but he wimped out.

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

everyone flips the channel to something else.

News a business, not a public service.

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

Donna Brazile on CNN. I just turned 'em off.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

CNN reports first county Clinton 67% Obama 33%, in Luzerrine & Philly

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

is better than watching gasbags bloviate.

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

HRC 32,826--55%
BO 26,922--45%

Becki Jayne's picture
Submitted by Becki Jayne on

Yeah!!!!!!!!

Just waiting to see by how much Hillary won.

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

so far are from Philly, where Obama is the strongest.

If she's leading handily now, it will only get worse for the Big O

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

FrenchDoc's picture
Submitted by FrenchDoc on

54 - 46 on CNN

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

BTD - I am beginning to believe the Exit Polls were wrong. clinton up 55-45 with 10% reporting. and Philly overrepresented.

Run up the score! Leave no doubt!

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

BDBlue's picture
Submitted by BDBlue on

Bob Casey, Jr., just told me that Obama couldn't beat Clinton in Pennsylvania because she was following a family member and it was Obama's first national campaign. Thank goodness he won't be running against a nationally known political figure in the Fall otherwise I might have questions about his electability. Whew.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

reporting on CNN. Clinton 53% to Obama 47%. And Obama's starting to break away in Philly, 58% to 42%.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

myiq2xu's picture
Submitted by myiq2xu on

Bob Casey is on CNN, trying to smile like he really means it.

Like father, like son, he bet on the wrong pony.

(For those who don’t know, his daddy dissed the Big Dawg back in 1992.)

GMTA

------------------------------------------------
"Real ponies don't oink" - Patrick McManus

Submitted by lambert on

Here:

With 15 percent of precincts reporting, she was leading Barack Obama 53-47 percent.

Not sure how much of that total is Philly, though.

Obviously, this is a tremendous win for Obama, who was able to hold her margin under 20% while outspending her by a mere 2 to 1 (I'm not sure whether that figure includes the DVDs or not. Now that Hillary can do so with dignity, she should quit, for the sake of party unity.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

All of Obama's strongholds are almost done reporting. His numbers will only go down, as the votes come in. Most counties, Clinton wins by 30 pts.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

FrenchDoc's picture
Submitted by FrenchDoc on

go take the TL poll.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

Clinton 55% 469,215
Obama 45% 386,827

*UPDATE

CNN just flipped Allegheny county to Clinton, 56-44. As that's Pittsburgh, wasn't that supposed to be an Obama stronghold?

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

Submitted by jawbone on

Hillary winning and my kitten finally learned to paw the little windchimes on the screen door to let me know she wants to come back inside!

Good Pa voters!
Good Mitsy cat!

Davidson's picture
Submitted by Davidson on

Obviously, this is a tremendous win for Obama, who was able to hold her margin under 20% while outspending her by a mere 2 to 1 (I’m not sure whether that figure includes the DVDs or not. Now that Hillary can do so with dignity, she should quit, for the sake of party unity.

I checked CNN for a brief second to hear the usual calls of Clinton being a horrible, pathetic loser. And then I looked at the numbers.

I'm quite worried about the popular vote count, though.

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

That's one of my cats!! we have to remove the screen from the storm door, else she would climb to the top and look in at us through the little window. We took it out, and now she scratches directly on the door. I want a screen door back though, so I might have to try that windchime, jawbone.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

FrenchDoc's picture
Submitted by FrenchDoc on

make them ALL just STFU... for-freaking-EVER!!
How can people listen to this, my gosh, there's enough to drive someone batshit insane!

Aeryl's picture
Submitted by Aeryl on

I keep telling you, the Obama strongholds reported first, his numbers will continue to fall. Check out the county totals on that page. The night has only just begun for Clinton.

55% reporting
Clinton 54-46.

Bill Clinton for First Dude!!!

Submitted by lambert on

There's a lesson here for us all, if only I could figure out what it is.

[x] Any (D) in the general. [ ] Any mullah-sucking billionaire-teabagging torture-loving pus-encrusted spawn of Cthulhu, bless his (R) heart.

Submitted by jawbone on

bcz the cats try to climb the screen. The chime ringer can open the sliding screen door--hooks her claws into the fuzzy insulation stuff and just opens it enough to wriggle her front leg through, then her head, and she's out.

Then the other cats follow.

I can't train her to close the screen, however....

Ringing the little chimes took from last summer to accomplish. The others haven't glommed on to that...yet.

Submitted by jawbone on

Great that she's not using teleprompter--the technology does, in some way, come between the speaker and the audience.

Davidson's picture
Submitted by Davidson on

I know the rest of the state looks golden for her (in terms of county percentages), but I was just concerned about the popular vote count. I fear she needs a 15 pt. win to break the media lie that PA is not a "win" and she's a certain loser. That lie is killing her in terms of $$$ donations (Send her money. Now. I'm tapped out so I'm hustling people for any spare change they can muster. C'mon!)

I hope she eats waffles for breakfast tomorrow.

Submitted by [Please enter a... (not verified) on

I think you're right. I think I'll make it a tradition. "The Foxhole Tardis" has a nice ring, doesn't it?