Five stages of collapse
While Dmitry's top level analysis is great, it's the details (from his experience with how people dealt with the economic/political/social collapse of the Soviet Union) on how Americans will cope with daily life after a collapse, that are the most entertaining/sobering. In a nutshell, life in a US Banana Republic means: we're going to grow lots of our own food, make our own energy, and buy most our products at flea markets.
Here's his presentation: The Five Stages of Collapse. Here's a quick summary:
- Financial Collapse. Already in motion.
- Commercial Collapse. Just started.
- Political Collapse (a loss of faith in the political process). First part is over (the recent election in the US [What, 2008?]). Second part is going to be nasty.
- Social Collapse. Potentially the end state or stable equilibrium point for most of the world. Everyone against everyone with points awarded by the global marketplace.
- Cultural Collapse. Full meltdown. Global market breaks.
Well, maybe. It's not clear to me how the "global marketplace" awards the points, when surely it's as vulnerable to collapse as everything else, if not more so.
Nevertheless, Orlov lived through the collapse of the other petroleum-dependent, militarized, rent-driven, corrupt, and institutionally sclerotic empire, so I suppose he must be considered something of an expert...