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Connecting the Dots – Deficit Reduction Is Now Only About Inflation, Not Insolvency

letsgetitdone's picture

By

Warren Mosler

(Editor's note: I'm re-posting this here from moslereconomics.com with a follow-on commentary of my own with the permission of Warren Mosler)

From Warren Buffet to Alan Greenspan,

And from all the responses to the S and P downgrade by
economists and financial professionals from the 4 corners of the world,

THE WORD IS OUT!

The US government is the issuer of the US dollar.

So no matter how large the federal deficit might be:

The US government can always make any payments in US dollars that it wants to.
There is no such thing as the US govt. running out of US dollars.
The US government always has the 'ability to pay' any amount of US dollars at any time.

NOW CONNECT THE DOTS TO:

The US is not dependent on tax revenue or foreign borrowing to be able to spend.

And,
whereas Greece is not the issuer of the euro,
much like the US states are not the issuer of the US dollar,

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE US BECOMING THE NEXT GREECE

There is no such thing as the US getting cut off from spending
by the financial markets and forced to go begging to the IMF
to get US dollars to spend.

Nor is the US government subject to market forces driving up interest rates on US Treasury bills.

EVEN AFTER BEING DOWNGRADED US TREASURY BILL RATES REMAIN NEAR 0%

Why, because, any nation that issues its own currency also sets it's own interest rates.
So in the US, the Federal Reserve Bank votes on the interest rate

SO, THEN,

WHAT IS THE POINT OF DEFICIT REDUCTION?

Suddenly, it's NOT solvency.
The US is suddenly NOT going broke.
Social Security is suddenly NOT broken.
There is suddenly NO risk the US will not be able to make all payments as promised.

So now,

the deficit hawks must CHANGE THEIR REASONS FOR DEFICIT REDUCTION 
or shut up!

they must FLIP FLOP
or shut up!

Yes, there is a new reason they can flip flop to.

Inflation.

They can start claiming the current path of deficit spending will lead to inflation.

Fine.

Bring it on!

First, they need to do the research,
as they haven't even thought about this yet.

Then they have to convince Congress to cut social security and medicare
Not because we might become the next Greece
Not because the US government checks might bounce someday
Not because the deficit will burden our grand children

But ONLY because some day,
if we don't do something when the time comes
and even though we don't have an inflation problem now,
and haven't had one in a very long time,
SOME DAY far in the future,
inflation might go from x% to y%.

Fine.

Do you think Congress will take draconian steps now,
during this horrendous recession,
to make things worse
by cutting Social Security?
and by cutting funding or public infrastructure?
and by raising taxes?

How about we get the word out and find out, thanks!

Commentary

By

Joe Firestone

I'll try my best to spread the news that THE WORD IS OUT! And also spread the further news that the Government can't run out of money, no matter how much it owes and that there is no solvency problem.

So there is also no deficit reduction problem, no national debt problem, or any Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid problems, or grandchildren burden problems based on fears of, or claims about, insolvency unless we pay our debts back!

I have to say however, that even though THE WORD IS OUT that solvency is not a problem, and that the austerity/human sacrifice crowd must now either fall silent or flip flop to inflation as their new rationalization for driving working people into poverty; I don't think for a minute that they will do either one.

Instead, I think they will assume that the news will never get out to most people and that they are free to go on with their same old narrative about possible insolvency making austerity necessary, without people either laughing at them or calling them liars. The MSM is unlikely to notice that the Government can create currency whenever it wants to, and they will just forget about the admissions made this week after the S & P downgrading, and reinforce the old money scarcity story, without missing a step, to please the Peter Petersons, Kent Conrads, Alice Rivlins and David Walkers of this world. The president already did this in a speech he made today.

So, I think that besides doing our best to spread THE WORD, we also need to pressure the President to prove that the United States Government has no solvency problems, and can never run out of money. In other words, we need to call for the President to use very high value Proof Platinum Coin Seigniorage (PPCS) to begin to pay back the national debt and also to create a balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) that is so large that no insolvency claims are even thinkable.

The basic idea is to mint a $60 Trillion platinum coin, turn it into electronic credits at the Fed, use the money, first to pay down $6.2 Trillion in debt immediately and the rest as it falls due, and confront Congress with a balance of of about $52 Trillion in the Treasury General Account (TGA). Then, facing that $52 Trillion in available financial resources, and with the President using the bully pulpit, let's see the austerity/human sacrifice crowd, even with all the money in the world behind them, try to justify voting for spending cuts in entitlements and other much needed areas of domestic spending.

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Comments

Submitted by Hugh on

I agree the strategy will be to repeat the same lie over and over no matter how many times it gets debunked. That is the Washington way. The main object of deficit reduction is to extend the scope of the looting, especially with regard to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

letsgetitdone's picture
Submitted by letsgetitdone on

But as Jamie Galbraith says: "We must make an honorable fight."

Submitted by MontanaMaven on

So this deficit reduction b.s. is meant to distract us from the real job of the Fed and a nation's government which is full employment.

We need to appeal to the no taxes crowd. We spend these trillions into the economy by fixing our infrastructure both physical and human like Medicare for All. It creates meaningful work. Putting money into bubbles (real estate, commodities, tech) and in warfare is not meaningful or productive. This new money circulates within our communities and does not sit somewhere overseas.

Jack Crow's picture
Submitted by Jack Crow on

...stuff, while often very well argued, and well intentioned, reads exactly like Glibertarian calls for the repeal of the 16th and 17th Amendments, like a newly minted syndicalist's calls for the immediate abolition of the state and the sui generis rebirth of a complete socialist order, like a conservatarian's demand for a 19th century application of the Constitution, or like Gold Standarders demand for the end to fiat currency and the fiat return to a metal standard.

Before I'm misread - I understand that you are arguing for an aggressive use of the fiat, but you don't seem to really get that the public doesn't care, and you cannot make them care.

This is futile agitation, because the state that actually exists is never, ever going to do what you want.

letsgetitdone's picture
Submitted by letsgetitdone on

But I'll keep trying because I know the public will care when there's $52 Trillion in the bank.

Joe's picture
Submitted by Joe on

I think it's one of the most brilliant ideas I have ever heard.

Is this your idea or Beowolf's? OR somebody else? It would totally work if only it were tried.

That's why I wish you'd run for the presidency.

letsgetitdone's picture
Submitted by letsgetitdone on

did the original post on PPCS and has tirelessly spread it through comments on other sites. i saw his first comment on the subject, urged him to write the first post and have promoted it since early January at this and a number of other sites. The idea on very high value PPCS ws first proposed by me, here.

Jack Crow's picture
Submitted by Jack Crow on

...wants to spend hours talking to me about Guild Wars and this new ranger build he's worked out, I don't feign interest. I am interested. Because I love him and he's so fucking beautiful it hurts me to realize that he's ever going to die.

But, I have no illusions that his fascination with a video game character will substantively change the world.

Because it won't. No matter how earnestly or honestly he tries to communicate the importance, right at this very moment, of this figment un-thing he's made, this little fraction of the total noos which he believe he controls all by himself, I know that his passion alone cannot move people to care.

Because this toy doesn't resonate. Its language is not the language of people in their everyday lives. It cannot move them, or us, because we have a shared knowledge, a common and sad recognition: a distraction is the admission of impotence. The obsession with a perfect game, or a fantasy world where the impossible hero has the one key which saves the kingdom? This is the admission of powerlessness.

Back when I was much, much younger, I had friends who were just as invested, just as passionate, just as fascinated with their Dungeons and Dragons characters. They longed for the end of the school day, or the absence of a parent in the house, to rush into contact with the suspended and unrealized worlds they'd spent hours imagining into a labile half-existence, fraught with imperfectability because they were precisely and utterly fictitious, always bordering as they were on a complete collapse, following the slightest interruption, perhaps from mom's return, or a phone call, the bark of the neighbor's dog, or the need to take a shit.

This is your MMT, as I read it.

That I understand it exactly as a tinkering with a character, or a map, or a dungeon from a role playing game does not mean I'm somehow committed to despair. I'm not. I just believe that a different set of paths to justice are more likely to become trails, and then roads, and perhaps even highways.

So, here we are:

You are role playing, in my humble opinion, from your own recognition of powerlessness and impotence. And I don't mean that as any sort of condemnation, or disapprobation.

I am without material substance. I'm ill, and poor, and because I decided to undertake the role of homemaker so my wife could return to the workforce, I'm a joke applicant now even at Wendy's. I kid you not when I tell you that one of the interviewers said to me, "Dude, you can't be a dude who stayed home to raise your kids for five years and expect to get a job. We have real men applying every day."

I understand powerlessness, and impotence.

I'm looking at your tinkering from the outside. And not with any hostility. It reminds me like nothing else as much as it reminds me of a teen aged, geeky dungeon master crafting the perfect Saturday night mission.

(I know you are not the only one, and I'm using the "you" in its plural form as well.)

But, there the lot of you are, with your maps and your graph paper and your manuals, and you really have built the best story, with the most fully developed narrative and characters imaginable. It's just that the guys on the football team, and the school principal, and the guidance counselor, and the mean office secretaries are not going to ever hand you access to the school's PA system, so you can tell all those kids sitting through home room about this best-est, totally most gnarly game ever.

And even if you did steal into the office, and risk detention or suspension in order to get your game notice out over morning announcements, anyone with a sober head and a kind heart could predict the outcome.

You are in for a long year of unremitting misery.

Which doesn't mean you shouldn't try. It's just that you don't really have a grasp of your own actual environment, at least as I see it.

And me - an anarchist - telling you this is some kind of irony, I know.

But, that's fundamentally also where we differ. I'm no stranger to utopia. I believe our reach must always exceed our grasps, or the stumbling forward into the future backwards that is such a salient feature of our too brief existences becomes a headlong pitch into the mud and the muck, with no real reason to get up again.

You've got to know your world well, you have to know how to hate it, in order to place a flower of hope in the vase of utopia. You've got to be honest about it. You have to be sober before and after your fancy, and your intoxication. If you're not, the drunkenness loses its charm, and becomes an uglier kind of fixation, and then - an addiction.

The state we have is not constituted to embrace or promote your form of Chartism. That state is a wholly owned tool of the capitalist over class. It is not run for the benefit of the proletariat. It only interfaces with that other perfect fiction, the middle class, to task the smallholders with hating on brown and/or poor people. You will never capture it and make it something it cannot be until you get rid of the over class which constitutes it.

And if you can actually get rid of that over class, there will be no efficient national state to capture in order to impose this perfect, fantasy fix.

Joe's picture
Submitted by Joe on

Shorter Jack Crow: "Everything sucks. Why try to change it?"

Truly one of the most pointless posts I've ever read on the internet. Congratulations.

Joe Firestone and a few others have a brilliant idea that can change this country forever. And you just shit all over it.

Joe Firestone has written many thousands of words on PPCS, pushed the idea into the B list blogs, the A list blogs, Krugman's blog, and onto A SUNDAY MORNING TALKING HEAD SHOW.

And all of this was accomplished over the course of a few WEEKS!

But all of this was worthless according to you.

Miguel Sanchez's picture
Submitted by Miguel Sanchez on

It's time to bash each others heads in and feast on the goo inside.

letsgetitdone's picture
Submitted by letsgetitdone on

more like 7 months from beowulf's first post. but I can appreciate Jack Crow's perspective. But I'm just too old to like it, I guess!

Jack Crow's picture
Submitted by Jack Crow on

...that getting the equivalent of a one hour sideshow (on a Sunday morning, during the worst hurricane in twenty years) in the Spectacle is a win, given the time and effort involved.

lambert's picture
Submitted by lambert on

We can't know that in advance, though.

* * *

Not to go into "You have to propose an alternative" mode here, or rather, to go into it, I think the real issue here is the role of the state; if I understand and may tendentiously summarize the anarchist perspective, it's that MMT if successful would reinforce the role of the state, and given who controls the state (now and ever) that can only be bad.

Jack Crow's picture
Submitted by Jack Crow on

Lambert,

I won't propose to type for all anarchists, because we are too broad a social type to be represented by a single summation, or person, but you are summarizing quite neatly my own essential objection.

As I just wrote over my way:

"If I were proposing a method for using the fiat powers of the state to snap a corporate shackle or two, writing 50 trillion onto the books and daring the loyal opposition to flinch would be at the top of the list.

It just doesn't take into account the state we actually have.

Over the last month, Justin [of Americana and Shotwell] and I have been going back and forth about the benefits and drawbacks of opting out of the economic/cultural/electoral system. We've both been arguing our points by way of exaggeration, and admittedly so, in order to tease out the implications of focusing on the individuality and/or collectivity [of] disobedience.

As an illustration of the state's impact upon social relations, and priorities, and of the vulgar lie which pretends to narrate its alleged limitation in addressing poverty, liquidity, debt and even employment, MMT has a similar function, I agree. It exaggerates to draw certain propositions to the fore.

But, it still refuses to anticipate the likeliest of futures which would follow upon even a single act of seignorage, as best as I can read the theory, because its entire premise depends upon assuming two conditions which cannot be met.

First, that those drawn to rule a nation of 300 millions, and those equipped to gain office in the hierarchy of that power, can be persuaded to betray their own class interests, especially against the concentration of wealth which funded their rises to power.

And second, that those who might replace them in order to do the right thing are immune to the persuasions and inducements of the same concentrations of wealth, power and influence.

Put another way - allowing power to concentrate as an outgrowth of wealth's concentration can only result in the state we have."

*

Perhaps as importantly, the entire argument as it's so far been presented hinges upon convincing [as Arthur Silber says far better than I ever could] a mass murdering, child slaying, bankster adoring, woman hating, bus throwing, death state expanding, ally betraying monster to be trustworthy enough to ignore who he is and who he owes, for the whole thing to work, even for a season.

lambert's picture
Submitted by lambert on

.... seems to be fractal.

That said, on the real operations of taxing and spending, I'm persuaded, I think with reason, that MMT is right. I don't believe in noble lies for any purpose. So, we have fiat money today, used for private purpose, and shrouded in deception. Given the givens, isn't fiat money, used for public purpose, with (some measure of) transparency and accountability an improvement? With the necessary meliorist assumptions on "public", "transparency," and "accountability."

DCblogger's picture
Submitted by DCblogger on

You sound old enough to remember the fall of the Berlin Wall, maybe even old enough to remember the fall of Jim Crow.

If we just keep chipping away, sooner or later we win.

by the way, I know what you mean about applying for jobs at Wendy, it is what Versialles has reduced us to. Lately Matt Stoller has been using the more ominous Wiemar metaphor.

Turlock