The public debt-to-GDP ratio is, perhaps, the most important measure used in discussions of the relative fiscal sustainability of nations. Nations with high levels of debt-to-GDP are viewed as having more serious fiscal problems than nations with lower levels. Nations having increasing ratios over time are viewed as becoming less fiscally sustainable, while those with decreasing ratios are viewed as more fiscally sustainable.
But is the public debt-to-GDP ratio really a valid measure of fiscal sustainability, or is it a measure that incorporates a neoliberal theoretical bias in its fundamental assumptions? In the United States, the total value of public debt subject to the limit at any point, is the total principal value of all the outstanding debt instruments sold by the Treasury Department. The GDP is the aggregate value of the production of goods and services in the United States within a particular period of time, adjusted for price changes.
So, the public debt is a variable measuring a cumulated stock, while GDP is a flow variable measuring economic activity within a particular period of time. Why compute a ratio of a cumulated stock to a flow within a circumscribed period of time?
Well, in this case of the debt-to-GDP ratio, neoliberal economists reason that the stock, the debt, can only be reduced if the government takes away part of the flow each year to repay a portion of the stock, the debt, leaving less of the flow to add financial savings to the private sector. After all, what other sources of government revenue are there except taxation? Read more about The Value of the Right Ratio Is Zero
Richard Eskow of the Center for the American Future, posted a very good one a couple of days ago. He used the old union meme “which side are you on” to beat up the President and Congress about Social Security being placed on the negotiating table. I thought his writing on it was striking. Here's some of it: Read more about Richard Eskow Asks: Which Side Are You On?
The one thing that jumps out at you when reading the mainstream posts of the past week-and-a-half bringing Platinum Coin Seigniorage (PCS) into the forefront of attention again, for the first time since last year's debt ceiling crisis, is that every mainstream blogger or commentator is telling a story about minting a Trillion Dollar Coin (TDC), or a few trillion dollar coins as an option the President can either use or not to get around the debt ceil Read more about New MSM Trillion Dollar Coin Wave: Here's The Big Story
In my last three posts, I've critiqued the new wave of mainstream posts and commentary on Platinum Coin Seigniorage (PCS) on my way to making the case that the MSM are missing "the big story" about PCS. Read more about New MSM Trillion Dollar Coin Wave Misses the Big Story: Bradford and Plumer
Did the MSM's new wave of commentaries on platinum coin seigniorage (PCS) miss the really big story about it? Of course, I think it did, and I'll continue my review of the MSM commentaries with the efforts of Chris Hayes at MSNBC, substituting as host on the Rachel Maddow show (12/05 at 9:20 PM); and John Carney at CNBC (12/06 at 11:54 AM). This is my second review post on this subject.
In this post I said I would blog about the likely expected relationship between the different Platinum Coin Seigniorage (PCS) options and inflation using the framework laid out by Scott Fullwiler! But, after reconsidering, I thought I'd hold off until later, and, instead, first provide a discussion of the "new wave" of MSM-based blog posts on the Trillion Dollar Coin (TDC) “solution” to the upcoming debt ceiling conflict. Read more about New MSM Trillion Dollar Coin Wave Misses the Big Story: Pethokoukis and Wiesenthal
The Trillion Dollar Coin (TDC) is, first, an oversimplified meme, because there's not one TDC solution, but lots of Platinum Coin Seigniorage (PCS) variations on that idea with differing implications for politics. Some just kick the can down the road, until the next debt ceiling crisis, or set up another trade between the Administration of something relatively valuable for something less valuable. Others would really change the political game. Read more about The Trillion Dollar Coin Is A Conservative Meme
Warren Buffett's recent op-ed in the New York Times is making a stir because it calls for a minimum tax on high incomes above $One million annually. But I was much more interested in some deficit targeting he proposes which exposes his ignorance about the sectoral financial balances model of macro-economics, and reveals him as a deficit hawk whose advice, if followed would be unsustainable and lead the United States into another deep recession. I'll comment on a couple of paragraphs in Buffett's op-ed. Read more about More Austerity Advice From the Very Rich: Buffett On Deficits!
The favorite defense of Social Security by progressives harkens back to Franklin Roosevelt who famously said:
”I guess you’re right on the economics. They are politics all the way through. We put those pay roll contributions there so as to give the contributors a legal, moral, and political right to collect their pensions and their unemployment benefits. With those taxes in there, no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program. Those taxes aren’t a matter of economics, they’re straight politics.”
Obama for America, the campaign apparatus with the very large e-mailing list and great segmentation techniques that exploited Romney's weaknesses to help the President to eke out (yes, I know the electoral vote involved no “eking out,” but the popular vote was something else again) his re-election victory, is now trying to mobilize people who voted for the President to work against their own interests by supporting his deficit/debt cutting activities. So, I couldn't resist the following commentary on their mobilization e-mail.
Robert Reich has been writing a series on “the Grand Bargain” and the “fiscal cliff.” In this post, I'll do a commentary on his “The President's Opening Bid on a Grand Bargain (II): Put a Trigger Mechanism in the Legislation”, because I think it's a good example of self-defeating progressivism or “loser liberalism. Take your choice of epithet.
Like many others, I'm not worried about the so-called fiscal “cliff,” and the ravages to the economy that are likely to occur if Congress doesn't do something about it before the end of the year. That's because a lot of the impact can be cushioned in the short run by Executive Branch manipulations while negotiations continue to go on. But if measures aren't taken to reverse the contractionary effect of the sequestration-induced changes, we're looking at deficit cuts of $487 Billion over 9 months of the fiscal year. Read more about The Fiscal “Cliff” and the Real Problem
Many MMT posts and other writings on fiscal responsibility, including my own, focus on the myths of neoliberalism, pointing out why they are myths and developing an alternative MMT perspective in some detail. Off hand, and I may have forgotten something, I couldn't think of a brief positive MMT narrative related to fiscal responsibility containing primarily the truths, rather than the myths. Read more about An MMT Fiscal Responsibility Narrative: Some Truths After A Second Crowd Sourcing Revision
Many MMT posts and other writings on fiscal responsibility, including my own, focus on the myths of neoliberalism, pointing out why they are myths and developing an alternative MMT perspective in some detail. Off hand, and I may have forgotten something, I couldn't think of a brief positive MMT narrative related to fiscal responsibility containing primarily the truths, rather than the myths. Read more about An MMT Fiscal Responsibility Narrative: Some Truths After Crowd Sourcing Revision
Many MMT posts and other writings on fiscal responsibility, including my own, focus on the myths of neoliberalism, pointing out why they are myths and developing an alternative MMT perspective in some detail. Off hand, and I may have forgotten something, I couldn't think of a brief positive MMT narrative containing primarily the truths, rather than the myths. So, here's my version. Comments, criticisms, recasting in more effective form, are all welcome.
-- The US Government can't involuntarily run out of fiat money because it has the constitutional authority to create it without limit. Congress constrains and regulates this ability; but its existence is still a stubborn fact! Read more about An MMT Fiscal Responsibility Narrative: Some Truths