[I thought I'd update and re-post this, since with HR3962 our GENIUS Dems have really outdone themselves their indefatigable efforts to preserve the two-party system by giving the Republicans ever better odds in 2010 and 2012. Not that it matters to them; they're all made in Versailles by now anyhow. --lambert]

Obviously, I'm not a member of that curious breed, the "Democratic Strategist," nor do I play one on the teebee, nor do I have an interest in joining the League of Triple-A Democratic Strategists as a way to make it into The Show; and anyhow, if I were any good at strategerizing, somebody would be paying me to do it (Inside Rotisserie Baseball commenters take note).

Then again, because I'm not paid [except for your donations!], I can't ignore the obvious on health care insurance reform, and it seems to me that the "some bill, any bill" that the current Congress is going to emit will have some problems down the line. Among them:

1. Pffft. That deflated feeling, as of air escaping from a tire, will come when people compare the promise of "hope" and "change" to what is actually delivered -- and when (2013). As far at the [a|the] [strong|robust]? public [health insurance]? [option|plan], I still think my "baseline scenario" -- the mandate will force millions to buy junk insurance, bailing out the insurance companies -- is the most likely outcome, and it's not going to play well over time, especially with Obama's youthful base [UPDATE See Ian Welsh]. Then again, we might think that the electoral process has become a stepping stone to lucrative jobs on K Street or on the teebee, and so what we think of as the politics or optics of it all is just not relevant to insiders and wannabe insiders.

Are conservatives paranoid and delusional? Let's take a look:

An eye-opening new report* from the Democratic-aligned research organization Democracy Corps suggests that conservative Republicans, the majority of the GOP base, harbor a well-developed, consistent, peculiar worldview about President Obama and his “hidden agenda” for the country. Armed with “facts” from conservative media, these individuals, fully 2/3 of the Republican Party at this point according to Democracy Corps estimates, believe that the President has been installed by powerful interests to enact socialist policies, violate the Constitution and destroy America. Independents and even GOP-leaning moderates exhibit none of these characteristics, making life difficult for GOP leaders who must choose between support inside the party and support in the country.

But -- work with me here -- how paranoid and delusional is that conclusion?

So said Pyrrhus, of the Pyrrhic Victory. And Professor Krugman:

So the odds now are that the [health care reform] thing hangs together, and reform is indeed enacted this year. It will be a highly flawed product; we’ll probably spend much of the next decade trying to fix it.

But it does look as if it’s going to happen. And that will be a huge victory for ["]progressives["].

In what universe does a policy that we know going in will take 10 years to fix get declared a victory?

Same as the old health care system. I'm shocked.

Which is only to say that this is not the end.

Please, no Churchillian oratory, mkay?

That's true also for the House and HELP bills. All these proposals are major improvements for the uninsured and those left out of the employer-based market. That means they're major improvements for those who are hurting the worst. And in constructing exchanges and beginning the hard work of delivery system reform and creating a system of subsidies and an individual mandate, they're building the foundation of a better health-care system. But as they embark on that project, they're leaving most of our current health-care system virtually untouched, which means most of the systemic problems will remain unsolved.

Even -- "even," haw -- WaPo has become infected with the noxious meme that the "public option" and Medicare are the same*:

Reid has compared himself to the late Mike Mansfield (Mont.), who succeeded Johnson and served as Democratic leader for 16 years, the longest tenure ever for a Senate party leader. Mansfield's soft cajoling helped lead to the 1965 passage of Medicare and Medicaid, the largest "public options" ever created in the health-care system.

Medicare is not a "public option." Medicare is single payer for over-65s, which can be supplemented with private insurance. Why is conflating Medicare with public option bad, other than being, well, a lie?

My guess would be sooner than we think. Forcing people to buy junk insurance, with the IRS acting as a collection agent, would definitely be a shove, and not a nudge.