That's the sting in the tail of this Golden Sacks report quoted at HuffPo. To GS, though status quo is best* (bien sur), the Senate Finance Bill is the "base" scenario, a watered down version of it the "bull" scenario_{MR SUBLIMINAL No shit} and the HR 3962 is the "bear" scenario. But remember the baseline on financial reform? That if the banksters aren't threatening to commit suicide, the reforms are too weak? Same here. If GS isn't saying the bills are the end of the world, they're too weak.)

A Goldman Sachs analysis of health care legislation has concluded that, as far as the bottom line for insurance companies is concerned, the best thing to do is nothing. A close second would be passing a watered-down version of the Senate Finance Committee's bill.

Haw.

A study put together by Goldman in mid-October looks at the estimated stock performance of the private insurance industry under four variations of reform legislation. The study focused on the five biggest insurers whose shares are traded on Wall Street: Aetna, UnitedHealth, WellPoint, CIGNA and Humana.

The Senate Finance Committee bill, which Goldman's analysts conclude is the version most likely to survive the legislative process, is described as the "base" scenario. Under that legislation (which did not include a public plan) the earnings per share for the top five insurers would grow an estimated five percent from 2010 through 2019. And yet, the "variance with current valuation" -- essentially, what the value of the stock is on the market -- is projected to drop four percent.

Things are much worse [that is, better for people who need health care], Goldman estimates, for legislation that resembles what was considered and (to a certain extent) passed by the House of Representatives. This is, the firm deems, the "bear case" scenario -- in which earnings per share for the top five insurers would decline an estimated one percent from 2010 through 2019 and the variance with current valuation is projected to be negative 36 percent.

What the firm sees as the best path forward for the private insurance industry's bottom line is, to be blunt, inaction.

The study's authors advise that if no reform is passed, earnings per share would grow an estimated ten percent from 2010 through 2019, and the value of the stock would rise an estimated 59 percent during that time period.

And now, here's the sting:

Via email, Mobilize for Health Care:

Dear Friend,
CALL PELOSI NOW! (415) 556-4862 and (202) 225-0100
There are 8 people sitting in RIGHT NOW in Nancy Pelosi's Office in San Francisco!

They are not leaving until they get an answer to their demands! Their demands are that the Kucinich amendment MUST be in the health care bill that the House votes on, and that the House MUST vote on the Weiner amendment.

Pelosi PROMISED the American people that she would ensure BOTH of the above would happen, and she has betrayed us by renigging on those promises!

Los Angeles Action

My name is Sam Pullen and I will be coordinating the sit-in at the Blue Cross office in downtown Los Angeles on October 15. We are calling upon all local supporters who are fed up with insurance companies that place profits before patients to join us for a rally from 10am - 12noon. We will be targeting the WellPoint Blue Cross office at 801 S. Figueroa Ave, Los Angeles CA 90017.

If you go to this, please take photos and post.

While some of us spent September advocating for single payer, the board of directors of Wellpoint spent the month relieving themselves of the stock of a company that they apparently believe is poorly management.

On September 2 John Cannon dumped 15,380 shares of Wellpoint. That same day Lori Beer dumped 197 shares. The next day Larry Glasscock dumped 13,000 shares and another 13,000 shares on September 17. On the 9th of September, Sheila Burke dumped 9,920 shares, and another 3,200 on the 14th. Kenneth Goulet observed the anniversary of 9/11 by dumping 22,000 shares and dumped another 3,377 on the 14th. On the first of October, Martin Miller dumped 238 shares of Wellpoint.