That's the sting in the tail of this Golden Sacks report quoted at HuffPo. To GS, though status quo is best* (bien sur), the Senate Finance Bill is the "base" scenario, a watered down version of it the "bull" scenario_{MR SUBLIMINAL No shit} and the HR 3962 is the "bear" scenario. But remember the baseline on financial reform? That if the banksters aren't threatening to commit suicide, the reforms are too weak? Same here. If GS isn't saying the bills are the end of the world, they're too weak.)

A Goldman Sachs analysis of health care legislation has concluded that, as far as the bottom line for insurance companies is concerned, the best thing to do is nothing. A close second would be passing a watered-down version of the Senate Finance Committee's bill.

Haw.

A study put together by Goldman in mid-October looks at the estimated stock performance of the private insurance industry under four variations of reform legislation. The study focused on the five biggest insurers whose shares are traded on Wall Street: Aetna, UnitedHealth, WellPoint, CIGNA and Humana.

The Senate Finance Committee bill, which Goldman's analysts conclude is the version most likely to survive the legislative process, is described as the "base" scenario. Under that legislation (which did not include a public plan) the earnings per share for the top five insurers would grow an estimated five percent from 2010 through 2019. And yet, the "variance with current valuation" -- essentially, what the value of the stock is on the market -- is projected to drop four percent.

Things are much worse [that is, better for people who need health care], Goldman estimates, for legislation that resembles what was considered and (to a certain extent) passed by the House of Representatives. This is, the firm deems, the "bear case" scenario -- in which earnings per share for the top five insurers would decline an estimated one percent from 2010 through 2019 and the variance with current valuation is projected to be negative 36 percent.

What the firm sees as the best path forward for the private insurance industry's bottom line is, to be blunt, inaction.

The study's authors advise that if no reform is passed, earnings per share would grow an estimated ten percent from 2010 through 2019, and the value of the stock would rise an estimated 59 percent during that time period.

And now, here's the sting:

Single-payer healthcare reform activists target CIGNA

Here:

Seven protesters have been arrested in Chicago during a sit-in for single-payer universal health insurance.

The arrests took place Thursday at the corporate offices of Cigna insurance company. A police spokesman says the protesters were arrested on criminal trespassing charges.

They were among about two dozen advocates who picketed at Cigna. Protesters carried signs and chanted "patients, not profits."

Organizers include the groups Healthcare-NOW! and the Center for the Working Poor. They plan similar protests next week in several other U.S. cities.

The major health reform proposals being worked out in Washington don't include a single-payer plan.

Once again I want to day how delighted I am to see HCAN join the Leadership Conference for Guaranteed Health Care in direct action against health insurance parasites.

So what did Cigna management do over its summer vacation? Well, on August 7 John Murabito dumped 13,500 shares of Cigna. On August 14 Peter Larson dumped 3,500 shares and dumped another 998 on August 31. On August 14 Edward Hanway dumped 183,693 shares. A lot of stock dumping on August 14, anyone with any ideas as to why that might have been?