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2010 Midterms: Footprints of Election Fraud

Richard Charnin's picture

2010 Midterms Analysis: House Generic, Senate RV/ LV Polls, Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Nov. 16, 2010

http://richardcharnin.com/2010SenateMidt...

The 2010 midterms are history. The typical reaction of the pundits is to promote the conventional wisdom that it was a GOP blowout of epic proportions - even bigger than 1994. Yes, the party in power nearly always loses seats in the midterms. The unconventional wisdom is that the Democrats do significantly better than the recorded vote indicates in every election. There is no reason to suspect that 2010 was any different.

This analysis utilizes final likely and registered state and national pre-election polls along with preliminary and final exit polls. Likely voter (LV) polls are a sub-sample of registered voter (RV) polls. Since 2000, LV polls have closely matched the recorded vote while RV polls closely matched the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls.

As expected, the final 2010 National Exit Poll margin discrepancy from the average of 30 pre-election generic LV polls was a near-perfect -0.62%. Setting the returning voter mix to the 2008 recorded vote, the discrepancy from the 19 pre-election RV poll average was an even lower 0.07%.

The final state exit poll (i.e. recorded vote) discrepancy from the average LV poll was 1.52%. Setting the returning voter mix to the 2008 recorded vote, the discrepancy from the RV poll average was an even lower 0.83%.

The Democrats were going to lose seats in the Senate and House. They were surely going to lose in Arkansas. And they did. They were expected to hold on to CA, WA, WV, NY, DE and OR. And they did.

But IL, NV, PA, CO and WI were expected to be close. And they were. The Democrats won NV and CO. They lost WI, IL and PA. Or did they?

It is standard operating procedure for the exit pollsters to force the Final National Exit Poll (and final state exit polls) to match the recorded vote. Obama's recorded vote margin was 52.9-45.6%. The 2010 Final National Exit Poll indicated that 45% of the electorate were returning Obama voters and 45% were McCain voters. Of course, the pundits will claim that the 7.3% discrepancy was due to millions of unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010.

The pundits always assume that the Final NEP returning voter mix is legitimate even though it is always forced to match the recorded vote. As usual, their implicit assumption is that election fraud was not a factor. But it always is.

In 2008 the National Election Pool, a consortium of six mainstream media giants which sponsors the exit polls, decided not to release unadjusted (or preliminary) state and national exit poll data. And they won’t in 2010, either. They don’t want anyone to see the adjustments they had to make to the return voter mix and/or the vote shares in order to match the recorded vote.

As usual, the pundits quote the final exit polls as gospel and claim that they show that Obama must move to the center – as if he’s been part of the “professional left” all along. They never question the official results. That’s why they’re pundits: they know that they are paid to present the recorded vote as if it represented the will of the voters. So they avoid the subject of: systemic election fraud - otherwise they might find themselves suspended indefinitely at best.

Given that election fraud is systemic, what does the combination of pre-election registered and likely voter polls, preliminary and final exit polls and recorded vote data indicate? Well, we still have unverifiable elections and a strange reluctance of the Democratic leadership to do anything about it.

Obama won the 2008 recorded vote by 9.5 million. But his True Vote margin was at least twice that; his recorded share understated his True share by 4-5%. If the 2010 NEP returning vote mix is adjusted to match the 2008 recorded share, the Democratic share is within 1% of the GOP - matching the pre-election RV polls. The adjusted 53/45% mix includes the discount for unenthusiastic Democrats who did not return to vote in 2010.

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Submitted by gmanedit on

"strange reluctance of the Democratic leadership to do anything about it"?